Does Trump’s Election Pose a Threat to China?
By Nikola Mikovic
As the newly elected US President Donald Trump reportedly pushes Russia and Ukraine to end the war, there are growing fears that relations between Washington and Beijing could go from bad to worse. It is widely believed that the Trump administration will take a tough approach regarding China while trying to reach a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. But how will the People’s Republic react if the US leader begins pursuing anti-Chinese policy?
US-China Economic Ties
The United States and China are linked by a strong economic interdependent relationship. The American trade with the People’s Republic has grown enormously in recent decades. The value of American goods imports from China rose from about $100 billion in 2001 to more than $400 billion in 2023. Today, China is one of the largest export markets for US goods and services, and the United States is the top export market for China. The two countries, therefore, can unlikely easily break up economic ties, even if they wanted to. That is why Donald Trump’s idea of economic decoupling from China, initially launched in 2020, has never been fully implemented.
China has been playing the role of a global factory for decades, and it will take time for Washington to relocate its business from the People’s Republic to countries such as Vietnam or India. It is a slow process, and it remains rather questionable if the American corporations operating in China are willing to end their presence in the world’s second-largest economy. American companies such as Apple, General Motors, Nike, Walmart, Microsoft, KFC, Starbucks, and Coca-Cola, earn hundreds of billions of dollars annually from sales in China, while Chinese firms have invested tens of billions of dollars in the United States. Thus, from a purely economic perspective, a potential decoupling would harm both countries. Quite aware of that, many leading firms from North America, the European Union, and the United Kingdom are maintaining a strong presence within mainland China.
But relations between the two great powers are not driven only by economic interests. Taiwan is still by far the most sensitive issue in US-China relations. Trump has already announced his intention to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine war and avoid entanglement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the subtext being he wants to focus on China. Understandably, this type of refocus could make China apprehensive. However, that is unlikely to happen, as the US military-industrial complex is the major beneficiary of both conflicts. Although it would undoubtedly benefit from a potential confrontation between China and Taiwan, as it would produce weapons to supply the self-ruled island, it is not probable that policymakers in Beijing will fall into a trap and invade Taiwan in the near future.
China’s Taiwan Stance and Potential US Provocations
“We are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and endeavor,” Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told a regular press briefing in Beijing on October 16. “But we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force,” he said, adding,
No matter how many troops Taiwan has and how many weapons it acquires, and no matter whether external forces intervene or not, if it (Taiwan) dares to take risks, it will lead to its own destruction.
The People’s Republic leadership has repeatedly stated that China will “surely be reunified” with Taiwan, and has set 2049 as a target date for “achieving the Chinese dream.”
The key factor in this conflict, however, is not the leadership of Taiwan or the People’s Republic, but the United States. Given its influence over Taiwan, the US could potentially trigger a war at a time that suits its interests, leaving China at a disadvantage.
At this point, Beijing likely aims to ensure that any further erosion of Sino-American relations does not hinder Chinese economic growth. That is why China’s policy toward the US will almost certainly continue to be a product of balanced deliberation. But if the US continues to provoke China, as it did in August 2022 when the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite warnings from Beijing, and the People’s Republic does not respond seriously, it will appear weak in the eyes of its major geopolitical rival.
The problem for China is that its export-oriented economy is heavily dependent on the West, which is why Beijing is likely to once again turn a blind eye to potential new American provocations. What the Chinese leadership can do, though, is to continue holding military exercises near Taiwan, although the American policymakers know that China, at least at this point, is not ready for a full-scale war against its breakaway province. That is why they are expected to continue crossing Beijing’s “red lines” – as they have been doing with Russia for years – whether in Taiwan or elsewhere.
US Aims to Curb China’s Rise
In July, Donald Trump emphasized that Taiwan should pay for its protection to the United States, accusing the self-ruled island of “stealing business from the American chip industry.” Such rhetoric likely served to confuse China – Washington’s major geopolitical and geoeconomic rival. That is why no serious policymaker in Beijing had a favorite in the US election.
Trump’s election poses a significant threat to China’s regional and international political and economic ambitions. Some strategic planners in China reportedly preferred the Democrats in the US elections as they were rather apprehensive of Trump’s return. The People’s Republic is fully aware that the United States, under Trump, will continue targeting Chinese electronic vehicles and solar panels. It is no secret that Trump aims to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. From Beijing’s perspective, such a move is an attempt to curb China’s rise as a global economic power. China, therefore, fears that the US could eventually engage in an open trade war against the world’s second-largest economy.
The Chinese government is aware that the US will likely continue taking serious steps toward weakening China’s play for economic dominance. On the technology front, Washington could persist in gradually increasing pressure on Middle Eastern and European nations’ cooperation with Beijing, spanning from artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and chips to sectors like renewable energy technology and electric vehicles. That, however, does not mean that Arab and European countries will completely halt their economic cooperation with China. They will likely be permitted to maintain limited business dealings with Beijing, provided these activities do not undermine US interests in the region.
Is China a Real Threat to the US?
In a recent National Security Action survey of voters in key electoral battleground states, only 14% of Americans listed China as the top national security priority for the next president. China has, therefore, not emerged as a key issue in this campaign cycle, although 58% of Americans see China as a “critical threat to US vital interests.” Despite that, for the average American voter, domestic issues seemed to have a priority over US-China relations. Thus, the perceived threat from China did not mobilize voter sentiment as strongly as in previous election cycles.
One thing is for sure: US-China relations will remain characterized by geopolitical rivalry. In the foreseeable future, despite harsh rhetoric, both Beijing and Washington are expected to avoid escalation, especially in sensitive areas like Taiwan. As a result, while competition will persist, a measured strategy that prioritizes dialogue and diplomatic engagement will be essential to maintaining stability in the region and beyond.
Finally, Trump is unlikely to radically change the US policy toward China. He is expected to continue to firmly back Taiwan, and encourage the American allies, especially in Europe, to distance themselves from the People’s Republic and reduce economic ties with the “world’s factory.” But would they yield to his pressure and do that? Events in Ukraine over the last three years have demonstrated how little autonomy Europe has regarding military and economic decisions. Policy in both areas was heavily tied to the decisions the Biden Administration made. NATO, Trump, and Europe have had a historically shaky relationship, at best. Whether or not Europe would follow, willingly or not, a shift of focus from Ukraine to China under a Trump Administration remains to be seen.
Trump himself is a wild card. No one knows what he will do or how far he will go. His second administration isn’t going to be filled with people like John Bolton or Mike Pompeo who push back and hinder the president’s agenda. Trump is surrounding himself with cabinet appointments whose number one attribute is loyalty and a willingness to do exactly what the president wants. What that ends up being will determine the course of Chinese and American relations for the next decade.
