Russia’s entire North Korean contingent in Kursk could be wiped out by mid-April, as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may not be able to sustain the high losses its forces have suffered, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The think tank predicted that the approximately 12,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast to help counter a Ukrainian incursion could all be dead or wounded by the spring.

Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and the North Korean embassy in the U.K. for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The ISW’s projection is significant because losing the DPRK contingent may seriously affect Russia’s ability to continue fighting in the war with Ukraine, as it is facing a manpower shortage. However, the losses could prompt North Korea to deploy more soldiers or escalate the conflict in retaliation for the troops lost.