After the Ballots: The Impact of Muslim American Voters in 2024

By Muhammad Abbas Azhar

The 2024 presidential election was a landmark event in American politics, particularly among Muslim and Arab American voters. After two decades of strong commitment to the Democratic Party, this critical voter demographic altered its support in ways that echoed throughout important battleground states. The split among Muslim voters between Republican Donald Trump, third-party candidates like Jill Stein, and a diminished portion for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris symbolized a profound transformation.  

This historic shift was motivated by dissatisfaction with Democratic policy and a strong response to the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict. For the first time in almost two decades, Muslim and Arab Americans broke away from their usual political ties, indicating their growing unhappiness with the two-party system. Swing states like Michigan, where this movement was most noticeable, revealed Muslim voters’ vital role in affecting election results.  

The 2024 election revealed the community’s political identity to its national leaders and sent a message, not just to political operatives but to leaders of both parties: Muslim and Arab American voters are no longer a free ride. As their influence grows in swing states, their political priorities and frustrations are poised to reshape the strategies of both major parties going forward.

Historical Trends in the Arab American Vote 

Historically, Muslim and Arab Americans have been dependable Democratic Party voters; this pattern became even more pronounced following the events of September 11, 2001. The Bush administration’s policies, especially the “war on terror” and the resulting rise of Islamophobia, caused these populations to become disengaged from the Republican Party in the early 2000s. This political shift led to an era where Muslim voters supported Democratic candidates by wide margins in every presidential election from 2004 onward.  

The pattern remained consistent in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Most Muslim votes were cast for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, with Biden receiving over 69% of them in 2020. Nonetheless, the historic change that occurred in 2024 was made possible by continuing anger over problems including Islamophobia, U.S. foreign policy, and limited political participation.

Muslim and Arab American Demographics  

The impact of Muslim and Arab Americans, who represent around 1% of the U.S. population, is heightened by their strong presence in crucial swing states. There are sizable Muslim and Arab American communities in states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which gives these communities an excessive impact in close election battles.  

There is significant diversity within these groups. Arab Americans originated in Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine. Muslim Americans come from Arab and South Asian backgrounds, as well as African backgrounds. While both communities have different cultures and political views, the war in Gaza suddenly presented in 2024 a unifying cause that these communities rallied around in previously unseen ways.  

Over the years, a growing segment of Muslim and Arab Americans began questioning the efficacy of their loyalty to the Democratic Party. While the party offered representation on social and civil rights issues, many felt their concerns about U.S. foreign policy, especially in the Middle East, were ignored. This dissatisfaction grew more pronounced in 2024, with the Biden administration’s support for Israel during the Gaza conflict serving as a breaking point for many voters.    

Foreign Policy Discontent 

Foreign policy, notably the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza conflict, proved a deciding issue in 2024. For many Muslim voters, Biden’s failure to call for a ceasefire and persistent backing for Israel amounted to involvement in Palestinian misery. This sentiment resonated across communities, bringing various groups together around a common grievance.  

Third-party candidates like Jill Stein gained significant traction by opposing U.S. military aid to Israel and advocating for human rights in Gaza. Even Donald Trump, who had previously alienated Muslim voters, managed to appeal to some by promising to end foreign conflicts and broker peace in the Middle East. For the first time in years, foreign policy became a top priority for Muslim and Arab American voters.  

Economic and Domestic Concerns  

While foreign policy dominated the narrative, economic issues also played a role in the shift. Inflation, job security, and education were pressing concerns for many voters. The Biden administration’s perceived ineffectiveness in addressing these issues left some disillusioned, prompting them to explore alternatives.  

Additionally, debates over illegal immigration and its economic impact resonated with certain segments of the community, mirroring broader national trends of financial anxiety. These concerns, coupled with dissatisfaction over domestic priorities, further weakened Democratic support.  

Political Marginalization 

Many Muslim and Arab Americans felt that the Democratic Party had taken their votes for granted. Despite their long-standing loyalty, they perceived a lack of meaningful engagement and advocacy for their issues. This sense of exclusion spurred internal disputes among the community over whether to stick with the two-party system or look for alternatives.

In 2024, many citizens chose to vote for third-party candidates in protest. This deliberate maneuver indicated unhappiness with the established quo while avoiding complete agreement with Republican ideas.  

Michigan: A Case Study 

Michigan became the epicenter of the Muslim and Arab American voting shift. Vibrant cities with significant Middle Eastern and Muslim populations, like Dearborn, Hamtramck, and Dearborn Heights, have transformed their vote trends dramatically.

• Donald Trump took 42 percent of the vote in Dearborn where over fifty percent of the population traces its roots back to the Middle East; Kamala Harris received 36%; and Jill Stein received 18%. It marks a sharp reversal from 2020 when Biden took over 70 percent of the vote in Dearborn.
• Hamtramck has turned into the first Muslim-majority city in the United States, and here it witnessed a major upsurge for Trump from 13% in 2020 to 43%. Harris witnessed a downslide to 46%, a sharp fall from Biden, who received 85% of the vote in the last election.

This exodus of Muslim and Arab voters from the Democratic Party proved critical in Michigan. With over 200,000 registered Muslim voters in the state, Trump’s narrow victory by 84,000 votes can be directly linked to this shift.

National Trends  

Exit surveys done by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) highlighted larger national trends:

• Jill Stein won 53% of Muslim votes nationally, thanks to her position on eliminating US military funding to Israel.   
• Donald Trump secured 21%, an unexpected result given his history of Islamophobic rhetoric.  
• Kamala Harris received just 20%, a steep decline from Biden’s 69% support among Muslims in 2020.

Similar tendencies came out in Pennsylvania and Georgia, when disillusioned Muslim voters abstained, backed third-party candidates, or voted Republican. 

While the majority of Muslim voters shifted away from Democrats, the community remained far from monolithic. For example:

• Yemeni and Bangladeshi Americans in Hamtramck tended to favor Trump as a form of protest against the Democratic Party’s perceived failures.
• Lebanese Americans in Dearborn, known for their progressive leanings, largely supported Jill Stein.  

This diversity underscored the complexity of Muslim and Arab American political behavior, highlighting nuanced motivations behind their choices.

The Role of Third-Party Candidates    

Jill Stein emerged as a key figure in 2024, capturing 53% of Muslim votes nationwide and 59% in Michigan. Her opposition to the Gaza war and commitment to reducing U.S. military aid to Israel resonated deeply with voters who felt betrayed by the Democratic Party.   

Third-party candidates faced limitations despite their success in drawing votes away from the major parties. The fragmented nature of their support and the constraints of the two-party system hindered her broader political influence. For many voters, supporting Stein was more about sending a message than expecting electoral victory.

Republican Outreach  

Trump capitalized on Muslim and Arab discontent by pledging to end foreign conflicts and bring peace to the Middle East. His campaign emphasized themes of disengagement from wars, appealing directly to voters frustrated by Democratic policies.  

Trump’s 2024 campaign was a shift from his previous statements. He toured Muslim-majority communities, talked with community leaders, and received support from officials like Hamtramck Mayor Amer Ghalib. These efforts helped mitigate his past anti-Muslim image and garnered unexpected support.  

Democratic Party Fallout  

The erosion of Muslim and Arab support contributed to Kamala Harris’s defeat in crucial battleground states. In Michigan, reduced turnout and defections in cities like Dearborn and Hamtramck played a decisive role in flipping the state Republican.   

The Democratic Party faced criticism for failing to address key issues, particularly the Gaza war. Harris’s campaign neglected meaningful outreach to Muslim communities, further alienating these voters.  

The 2024 election has prompted introspection within the Democratic Party, with leaders acknowledging the need for stronger engagement and policy commitments to rebuild trust with Muslim and Arab voters.

Broader Implications  

The 2024 presidential election highlighted Muslim and Arab Americans’ rising political prominence while raising serious concerns about their future influence in US politics. The community’s vote change has far-reaching consequences for political involvement, coalition formation, and the dynamics of the two-party system.

The election revealed the rise of a common political identity among Muslim and Arab Americans, supported especially by frustration over the Gaza crisis. The Gaza conflict became a unifying topic across generational and ideological lines in society leading to a mobilization around shared goals. Emgage and CAIR helped to mobilize voters, demonstrating the community’s ability to organize and affect election outcomes. 

Disillusionment with both major parties has prompted discussions about the importance of issue-based voting and advocacy beyond traditional party lines. Further dissatisfaction among Muslim and Arab voters with the two-party system was highlighted in the 2024 election cycle.

Third-party candidates such as Jill Stein were able to reflect the will among Muslim and Arab Americans, seeking alternatives—even within a system so weighted in favor of the two major parties. The election reignited debates about the need for structural changes, such as ranked-choice voting to represent diverse political voices better.  

Evolving Coalitions and Alliances

The voting patterns of Muslim and Arab Americans signal a shift in traditional political coalitions. Loyalty to the Democratic party has been fractured.  Historically aligned with Democrats, these communities demonstrated they could no longer be relied upon without meaningful policy commitments and outreach.

Trump’s advantages among Muslim and Arab voters in 2024 indicate that Republicans may try to engage these populations in future elections by stressing shared issues such as foreign policy and economic interests.

However, disillusionment with both parties has also opened the door for cross-community coalitions based on common interests, such as advocating for human rights and addressing economic inequality.

A Precedent for Other Minority Groups?  

The Muslim and Arab American experience in 2024 could serve as a blueprint for other minority groups seeking to assert their political influence. Voting as leverage in directing foreign policy, even if unsuccessful in changing policy demonstrates political actions overseas can have real electoral consequences. The community’s ability to impact the outcome in key swing states underscores the importance of strategic voting and the potential to demand change. Coming together around an issue like Gaza shows how unison around a central issue builds a louder voice for a community.

The larger implications of the 2024 elections indicate that Muslim and Arab Americans will become a significantly more forceful and sovereign political force in the United States. Their capacity to defy convention and demand responsibility reflects a broader shift in minority voters’ expectations, requiring both main parties to adjust or lose them.

The 2024 election represented a turning point for Muslim and Arab American voters as a political force in America. They organized in unprecedented numbers to question the existing quo on home problems and challenge US foreign policy, sending shockwaves through the two-party system and reshaping the political map.

For the Democrats, this election provided a wake-up call about the dangers of assuming voter loyalty in minority communities. Although Democrats slipped some in the Black vote, they held the vast majority of Black voters together despite growing discontent in that community. Should Black voters coalesce around an issue the way Arab American voters did, it would create an unsolvable problem for Democrats without policy change that reflected the interests of these minority communities. For the Republicans, attempting to reach those voters indicated potential political realignment but tempered it with continued skepticism.

Muslim and Arab Americans will keep organizing and lobbying for their priorities; they are an electorate whose influence in American politics will rise. The 2024 lessons are clear: no political party can afford to overlook this dynamic and increasingly assertive constituency.