From the Moon to Mars
By Nikola Mikovic
Russian-Chinese Joint Space Vision
Russia and China may not be formal allies, but they share a strong desire to counter United States geopolitical leadership, and recently that extends into outer space. Although Moscow and Beijing attempted to develop space cooperation in the past, they managed to significantly expand it only after the Ukraine crisis broke out in 2014. But how will their space ambitions develop in the future?
Chinese Vantage Points
From the Chinese perspective, the China-Russia space cooperation is a response to Washington’s policy of “space weaponization.” Beijing has repeatedly accused the US of “space hegemony”, claiming that, in recent regional military conflicts, the United States has “relied on its space military capabilities to intervene in other countries by providing information support through non-combatant means.”
In parallel with such rhetoric, China sought to preserve good ties with the American allies in Europe.
“We stand ready to work with all countries with the same commitment to strengthen exchanges, deepen cooperation, and contribute to lasting peace and common security in space,” said the Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Colonel We Qian on April 26.
However, despite a long-standing record of space cooperation between Beijing and the European Union, the European Space Agency (ESA) January 2023 decision not to send European astronauts to China’s space station seems to have forced Beijing to increase its space partnership with Moscow. Previously, ESA pulled out of a joint European-Russian Mars mission following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Beijing now sees Russia as an important partner for space cooperation. Russia and China reportedly aim to actively work together to challenge what they perceive to be a Western-dominated world order. Their cooperation in space has been increasing for the past ten years, and recent developments show that the two strategic partners have some serious plans regarding a joint space program.
Interspace Infrastructure
In March this year, Russia and China announced that they aim to build a nuclear power plant on the moon in the 2030s. Previously, in March 2021, the two nations said that they were teaming up on an ambitious project called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). It is most likely their response to the unveiling of NASA’s Artemis program.
According to a space cooperation program between Russia’s State Space Corporation (Roscosmos) and China National Space Administration (CNSA) signed on 25 November 2022, the two countries will seek to create an international scientific lunar station and jointly explore the moon’s surface. The construction of the ILRS is expected to be completed by 2035. Two missions are planned in 2026-2030 to test the technologies of landing and cargo delivery, as well as the transportation of lunar soil samples to Earth.
We see the first steps on the road of long-term cooperation between Russia and China in the exploration of the Moon
said Lev Zeleny, scientific director of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In his view, the agreement on cooperation in building an international lunar research station concerns only the operation of automatic stations and robots. When it comes to the potential development of joint manned lunar exploration programs, Moscow and Beijing will likely have to reach a separate deal.
Russian Goals in Space
Besides the moon, Russia seeks to establish its presence on other planets too. During his recent visit to China, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he liked the idea of Russia and China jointly unfurling their flags on Mars. However, it remains unclear if Moscow has the capacity to achieve such ambitious goals.
Russia’s first moon mission in 47 years failed last year after Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft spun out of control and crashed. The failure highlighted the significant decline of Russia’s space power since the illustrious days of the Cold War. During that era, Moscow achieved groundbreaking milestones. For instance, in 1957 it launched Sputnik 1, the first satellite to orbit the Earth, and sent the Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin as the first human into space in 1961. These historic accomplishments contrast sharply with the current challenges Russia’s space program is facing.
On the other hand, despite its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, Moscow is currently working to build the Russian Orbital Station that should be launched into a near-polar orbit between 2027 and 2033, which indicates that the Kremlin is unlikely to easily give up on the Russian space program.
The Butterfly Effect of War
But while the Russian Federation remains bogged down in Ukraine, and isolated from the West, China’s global position and strength continue to grow. Back in 1970, China successfully launched the “Dongfanghong-1” satellite, thus entering the space club. Over the past few decades, Beijing has developed its space capabilities rapidly. As a result, China has one of the world’s most active space programs. Beijing now likely seeks to leverage Russia’s decades of experience in space, given that Russia’s space program needs Chinese money and access to Chinese components to circumvent sanctions the West imposed on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine.
It is no secret that Western sanctions have pushed the Russian space industry to rely more on China. US officials now accuse Chinese firms of supplying microelectronics, drone engines, and machine tools to Russia’s defense industry, aiding in the production of missiles, tanks, and aircraft. These dual-use items, according to Washington, undermine efforts to deprive Russia of weapons. Consequently, Moscow has turned to Beijing, exporting discounted oil and gas to the People’s Republic while importing Chinese electronics, cars, and other goods.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West has imposed a technical embargo on the Russian space industry. That, however, does not prevent Beijing from developing space cooperation with Moscow who, despite various challenges, preserved high-tech aspirations. Russia and China now cooperate in the field of rocket development, the exchange of rocket engine data, and joint development and the use of spacecraft.
The United States is reportedly worried about the growing Sino-Russian space cooperation. According to the mainstream narrative in Washington, the US must “ensure freedom of action in space” and counter efforts by Russia and China to reportedly seek to “attack the US forces through space.”
The US Space Command head General Stephen Whiting has recently emphasized that Russia still poses a “formidable” challenge in space, warning policymakers and strategic planners in Washington against a “false sense of confidence.” What seems to particularly worry the US is the possibility of Russia helping China build missile warning and defense systems, and sell it advanced rocket engines, as some Russian reports suggest.
Besides the military aspect of the Sino-Russian space cooperation, the space program remains very important for China, as it advances Beijing’s goal of elevating Chinese soft power worldwide. However, the ambitious space partnership touted by China and Russia may well be exaggerated. Russian space budgets have been declining for years, and the war in Ukraine will most likely further strain Moscow’s financial and technical resources for space endeavors. As a result, Russia could become China’s junior partner in the field of space programs, which is not what many influential political circles in the Kremlin want to see.
Finally, the fact that Moscow and Beijing are not allies and that they often have diametrically opposed geopolitical goals could eventually hinder meaningful, integrated space cooperation. And that is exactly what the United States is hoping for.
