A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?

We’ve heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we’ve heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump’s envoys and Biden’s envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he’s ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.