Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) reports that Russia is expanding its armed forces in a way that “not only supports Russia’s war effort in Ukraine but also prepares for a potential future war with NATO.”

The findings, part of EFIS’s annual intelligence report published on 12 February, align with the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) assessments that Moscow is setting the stage for a larger conflict in the medium to long term.

EFIS analysts conclude that while “the pace of the Russian military’s rearmament will depend on the duration and outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” Russia is actively mobilising more resources despite the extensive losses on the battlefield. If the conflict in Ukraine were to end under terms favourable to Moscow or become a frozen conflict, the EFIS suggests that Russian forces “will be permanently stationed in more significant numbers than before 24 February 2022” along the borders of NATO member states near Russia—including Estonia.

The EFIS report also highlights Russia’s push to develop and centralise drone operations and production. The intelligence service notes that Moscow intends to invest on average €1 million (about $1 million) annually until 2030 into the “Unmanned Aerial Vehicle” National Project. The goal is to establish 48 research and production centres across Russia, consolidate the country’s drone design and manufacturing, and introduce drone-related education into “75 percent of all Russian schools.” According to the EFIS, Russia seeks to reduce its dependence on Western technology by turning to third parties—primarily the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—to acquire components. EFIS analysts estimate that “up to 80 percent of sanctioned Western components likely reach Russia through the PRC.”