Reconsidering the Draft in America
By Quinn Que
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinion on ScoonTV
Is America Heading Toward Mandatory Military Service?
Within the Washington corridors of power, there’s a conversation brewing that few politicians want to have publicly: The potential return of military conscription, or as it’s commonly known, the draft. As global tensions escalate and recruitment numbers for the U.S. military prove unsteady at best, what was once unthinkable is slowly becoming a topic of serious discussion. But the question remains: is America truly prepared to reinstate mandatory military service, and more importantly, should it?
The answer is complicated, and it cuts to the heart of what kind of nation we want to be in an increasingly unstable world. Fueling the question are challenges at home and abroad. Let’s dive in.
A Slow-moving Recruitment Crisis
Some hard facts to reckon with upfront: The U.S. military has been struggling with a fluctuating recruitment crisis, its worst since the transition to an all-volunteer force in 1973. According to Department of Defense statistics and reports, multiple branches failed to meet their recruitment goals in 2022 and 2023, with the Army falling short by approximately 15,000 soldiers in the latter year. The Navy and Air Force are experiencing similar challenges, missing their targets by 8,000 and 5,000 recruits, respectively.
The branches narrowly hit their targets in 2024, but only by reducing their goal by over 10,000 and lowering standards for new enlistees. Nearly half the incoming recruits were measured below average in ASVAB (Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery) testing, the military aptitude exam. Physical standards are also falling. Less than 8% of the U.S. population is eligible for what’s called “clean enlistment,” meaning no need for medical waivers. To combat this, the military more than doubled the number of waivers granted to recruits in 2024 compared to 2022.
High attrition rates add to woes, with nearly 25% of recruits failing to complete their contracts. Many wash out, for medical or other reasons, within 2 years or less of contracts that are typically structured to run 8 years. All this despite the military having recently instituted remedial preparatory courses—like Future Soldiers for the Army, Future Sailors for the Navy, and so on—to help would-be recruits pass the already reduced standards.
We should note that all this is just the active-duty service data. The National Guard and Reservist branches arguably fared the same or worse over the same period. They have been shrinking since 2020, missing their quotas for years. Shortfalls in the active sections would be one thing if these secondary service options were fully staffed, but at current levels and trends, the various armed forces seem to be coming up worryingly short across the board.
It is also important to remember that the Selective Service, a national database that keeps track of all males over age 18 (originally for draft purposes), is still in effect. Males are still expected to sign up with it, though doing so is technically voluntary now. In 2024, legislation was floated to make registration automatic and possibly applicable to both sexes.
Conflicts Amidst Global Uncertainty
As America’s military struggles just to maintain a solid pool of servicepeople, other countries are stepping up their game. Russia’s increasing aggression in Eastern Europe (most recently the war in Ukraine) is one cause for concern, even if a peaceful resolution can be reached in the near term. The People’s Republic of China, long considered America’s primary frenemy and rival in what some have termed a new Cold War, is slowly asserting itself more forcefully. And perilous regions like the Middle East, including Israel, Iran, and their neighbors, remain volatile.
The rapidly shifting global landscape threatens to overwhelm America’s current military capabilities, should it opt to engage in any significant boots-on-the-ground activities in Asia, Europe, or elsewhere. The Pax Americana, Latin for “American Peace” and styled after the Pax Britannica and Pax Romana before it, is on very unsure footing. Major conflicts have already broken out, and more may soon come.
From extreme escalations in Eastern Europe to international struggles for control of trade routes and disputed territory within the greater Pacific Straits, the potential need for American assistance is an ongoing concern. What makes today’s situation particularly precarious is the possibility of simultaneous crises across multiple theaters of war.
Deploying the US Navy to stamp out pirates near Yemen is one thing, but fighting China’s PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) to defend the Taiwan Strait is quite another. To say nothing of joining a hot war in Europe for the first time in decades. These scenarios individually were once considered unlikely, but now they are viewed as genuine prospects, and ones with a decent chance of overlap.
Given this, it’s understandable that the United States would contemplate reinstituting the draft, even if such an idea was once unthinkable. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures, to paraphrase the old saying. Some might consider this decade to be one on the precipice of becoming the most extraordinary period in recent history, for better or for worse. If we are truly witnessing realignment of global power, it would be the most significant since the end of the 1st Cold War with the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
Competing Conceptions of Conscription
Proponents of bringing back the draft argue that it would not only solve the recruitment crisis but also heal some of America’s deep social divisions by creating a shared experience across class and cultural lines. They point to countries like Finland, Israel, and South Korea, where compulsory national service helps forge a sense of universalism and national cohesion. Notable South Koreans Moon Jae-in and Chung-in Moon, an ex-President and a public intellectual, respectively, both support this model of national service. Herzi Halevi of Israel and Sauli Niinistö of Finland also support similar policies.
In America, a modern draft could take many forms. It could include options for national service beyond traditional military roles. Infrastructure projects, disaster relief, and community service. The key would be creating a culture where giving something back to one’s country isn’t optional or exceptional but expected. Even so, it’s undeniable that the vast majority of drafted personnel would be armed service personnel, even if some portion of these would never see combat.
Critics counter that forcing unwilling citizens into military service creates more problems than it solves. Figures from Rand Paul and Ben Shapiro on the right to Nan Levinson and Bernie Sanders on the left have all opposed a return to conscription. Drafting people who don’t want to serve could undermine military effectiveness, as we already know, there is a limit on viable candidates for enlistments without waivers or other special allowances. Some would argue that modern warfare requires highly motivated, technically proficient personnel, not reluctant conscripts counting the days until discharge.
There are also legitimate concerns about who would be drafted. Historical experience suggests that the wealthy and well-connected often find ways to avoid service, leaving the burden on the working and middle classes. Conversely, it is also argued that drafted militaries saw the highest levels of integration across ethnic and socioeconomic lines, though this also led to increased opposition to drafting from compulsory service families.
We’ve created an increasingly distinct military caste in America. Less than 6% of Americans are active duty or veterans, and those who do increasingly come from military families, creating generational service patterns. For most Americans, military service has become something “other people” do.
Visit tight-knit and/or rural communities in states like Alabama, Kentucky, or Minnesota, and you’ll find military service is still viewed as a proud tradition and viable career path. Yet in suburban enclaves or highly popular, populous urban centers like Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle, military service has become increasingly rare, almost exotic.
How would a broader cross-section of Americans, normally detached from both the realities of geopolitics and of military service, react to being suddenly thrown into both? What would more comfortable families in cities and suburbs make of the government conscripting their sons and their daughters, if certain policies are enacted?
We have some idea, given the history of how the draft ended. The Vietnam War became one of America’s most controversial conflicts in the late 20th century. Families on the left, right, and center ended up opposing the draft as well as the war. President Richard Nixon ended conscription via executive order, hoping to quell protests and heal the nation.
Is National Service Still Possible?
The question of whether America will reinstate the draft ultimately depends on how we balance our strategic needs against our commitment to historic principles and individualism. As tensions rise globally and recruitment continues to wax and wane, the pressure for some form of mandatory service will likely increase, even if domestic politicians are loath to say so publicly.
We’re approaching a national reckoning about what citizenship means in 21st-century America. Does being an American citizen entail obligations beyond paying taxes and obeying laws? Is national service, at least in some form, an essential component of democratic citizenship? These are some of the thoughts undergirding the overarching conscription question.
Americans need to have this conversation openly and honestly before a crisis forces our hand. A hasty implementation of conscription during a moment of international emergency would be divisive and potentially disastrous. Instead, we should be discussing the potential for a more flexible system of national service that includes, but isn’t limited to, direct military options.
Americans of all stripes need to be clear-eyed about what the United States expects of its citizens. National service may ultimately become a universal rite of passage rather than something relegated to a select few. And everyone will need to figure out where they stand, belligerent rivals like China and Russia, amongst other things.
The draft may indeed return to America – but if it does, it should reflect our values as a society and our needs as a nation. That means ensuring fairness in who serves, providing meaningful service options beyond combat roles, and creating a culture that values contribution to the common good.
Without that deeper conversation about citizenship and service, any attempt to reinstate the draft will likely tear at America’s already fraying social fabric. And that’s a cost no nation can afford to bear.
Curtis Scoon is the founder of ScoonTv.com Download the ScoonTv App to join our weekly livestream every Tuesday @ 8pm EST!
