What is the Future of Labor in an AI World?

By J. Simpson

The Longshoreman’s Strike and an Uneasy Future for American Labor.

The longshoreman’s strike may have lasted only three days but the issues that caused the strike are far from settled. It’s the latest in a series of problems confronting labor in the modern world, ranging from wage disparity, outsourcing and globalization, automation, and now the looming asteroid extinction event for labor, Artificial Intelligence.

On Tuesday, October 1, nearly 50,000 dockworkers across the East Coast and Gulf Coast commenced the first large-scale strike in almost 50 years. The strike resulted from the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) and the States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group failing to agree to a new 6-year contract. The negotiations were about far more than money; fair wages played an important part in the conversation. Harold Daggett, leader, and spokesperson for the ILA, rejected the first round of offers, observing that major employers like Maersk, a Danish shipping container company that also operates several ports in North America, failed to agree to the proposed pay increases or halt port automation processes that could put jobs at risk.

The ILA strike began following six months of heated negotiations between the dockworker’s union and the USMX. Things had been going smoothly until the ILA discovered that USMX was processing trucks without the aid of human labor in June 2024. Things continued to heat up until September, when 300 delegates from the ILA walked away from wage scale meetings, throwing their full support behind Daggett and the threat of a strike starting on October 1. At this stage, the Biden Administration announced that it wouldn’t force a deal between the two parties, despite intense bipartisan pressure.

In the first round of negotiations, the ILA turned down the USMX’s first offer, despite the organization’s observation that it was 50% higher than any other recent union settlement. According to Daggett, the ILA was holding out for a $5/hour raise for each year of the six-year contract. The Biden Administration weighed in during this stage of the negotiations, with White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre offering lip service in support of the workers. “Shippers have made record profits since the pandemic, and, in some cases, have seen profits grow in excess of 800%,” observed Jean-Pierre, as reported by Reuters.

It’s only fair that workers who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open see a meaningful increase in their wages, as well.

The ILA and the USMX ended up coming to a temporary agreement on Thursday, October 3, offering the dockworkers a 62% wage increase over the next six years. However, this agreement kicked the can down the road for three months. The current agreement only extended the current Master Contract until January 15, 2025. At that point, conversations will resume that could decide the future of dockworkers across North America. Those negotiations will be focused on the role that automation will play in American ports, going forward.

The Implications of the Dockworker’s Strike

The ILA strike was about far more than keeping up with inflation. The dispute has just as much to do with the increasing introduction of automation into American ports. Automation not only puts dockworkers’ jobs at risk, but it also threatens the nature of the work itself.

The ILA’s previous contract specified that the union needed to give its permission for any port to integrate automation, including tools like remote control cranes. According to a report issued by the Government Accountability Office in March 2024, all 10 of the United States’ largest container ports use some form of automation for various tasks. These tasks include loading and unloading containers and tracking their movements. Currently, only 63 ports of the 1,300 container ports on Earth use some form of advanced automation as of 2022. 

To make matters even more confusing, certain port stakeholders claim that automating ports will even make dockworker’s jobs safer, not to mention bolstering the global supply chain and making the entire process more efficient. Others suggest that the United States needs to catch up to other nations in terms of port technology. Erik Brynjolfsson, the director of Stanford University’s Digital Economy Lab, called America’s ports “dramatically under automated,” as reported by The Hill. According to Brynjolfsson,

Automation creates value. It makes the pie bigger. And in theory that should be, there should be room for a win-win there.

Theoretically is the operative word in that quote. It’s worth noting that those supporting these policies are shareholders and economic analysts. That doesn’t mean that changes don’t need to happen, though. Margaret Kidd, program director and associate professor of supply chain logistics at the University of Houston, points out how the United State’s ports are one area where American exceptionalism doesn’t apply. According to Kidd,

What most Americans don’t realize is that American exceptionalism does not exist in our port system. Our infrastructure is antiquated. Our use of automation and technology is antiquated.

Automating American ports will not only eliminate jobs but also irrevocably change the nature of the dockworker’s remaining jobs. Automation thrives on simple, repetitive tasks. This means that the work will be more strenuous and dangerous. It also means there will be less variety, making the remaining work more repetitive and monotonous. It also changes the dynamic of the workplace, as workers will have to match the robot’s pace. Introducing robots into American ports will make the workers lucky enough to keep their jobs more robotic, ironically enough.

The dockworker’s strike is the latest chapter in a series of ongoing labor disputes, many involving the use of AI and automation. Last year’s SAG-AFTRA strike was heavily concerned with the use of AI in Hollywood. Concerns about AI and automation are nothing new, though. The McKinsey Institute was already publishing steps to safeguard the economy against automation in AI back in 2018. According to McKinsey, these are the 10 steps that will allow society to harness AI and automation without disrupting the economy too severely.

10 Steps for Embracing Automation and AI

• Ensure robust economic and productivity growth.
• Foster business dynamism.
• Adapt education systems.
• Invest in human capital.
• Improve labor-market dynamism.
• Redesign work.
• Rethink income.
• Help affected workers transition.
• Invest in drivers of demand for work.
• Embrace AI and automation safely.

It’s worth noting that 5/10 of these steps rely on employers doing the right thing. 4/10 depend on government intervention. Both of these seem to build upon the common fallacy that more “productivity” = more jobs, which is just another spin on the trickle-down economics we’ve been waiting to work for over 40 years. It also relies on the common misconception that all jobs are similar and inter-changeable as if telling a longshoreman who’s been working on the same dock for the last 50 years to learn to code is going to help. It’s also worth noting those guidelines were published in 2018 before the COVID-19 pandemic and AI like ChatGPT threw the global knowledge economy into a tailspin. Before widespread AI adoption, the general attitude seemed to be that the decline of physical jobs like manufacturing or warehousing would be replaced by jobs in tech. The trouble with that prediction is that tech has been hemorrhaging jobs since 2021. Knowledge workers like programmers, developers, accountants, and supervisors are now at even more risk from AI than blue-collar workers. Jobs impacted by automation and AI might disappear to be replaced by… nothing at all.  

AI and automation are one branch of the chaos raging through virtually every facet of the economy, especially in the United States. Workers are unionizing at record high rates, in everything from coffee shops to Cannabis workers to climbing gyms. Income inequality continues to rage, despite dipping slightly in 2022. Wages continue to struggle to keep up with the cost of living for many, despite a strong showing in 2024. The dockworker’s strike may be over, for now, but the conversations about worker’s rights in the United States in the face of increasing mechanization are only beginning. These questions and concerns are undoubtedly going to play an important role in November’s election. So far, the Harris Administration is attempting to appear proactive, issuing statements and policies about official policies on AI and creating what she calls “an opportunity economy.” 

Donald Trump has issued statements on AI, as well, acknowledging that AI will play an important role in America’s future. He also seems to be siding with blue-collar workers like the longshoremen, as evidenced by photos of him together with Daggett. He’s also pledged support for other embattled sectors like the auto industry. He’s put forth ideas about imposing hefty tariffs and incentivizing American manufacturers, which some analysts have suggested won’t be enough. His off-the-cuff bragging about not paying workers overtime casts some doubts on his pro-labor policies, but only time will tell should he prove victorious in November.

One thing is for certain… these questions aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. The American working class has been getting the short end of the stick from government and business owners alike for at least 50 years, giving all the spoils of one of the most incredible economies in history to fewer and fewer people. Something needs to give, ensuring either that wages keep up with the cost of living or that there’s some semblance of protection in place for the inevitable shifts. Relying solely on the benevolence of big business hasn’t been working out very well, so far. Someone needs to be considering solutions. It’s increasingly likely that the candidate who even attempts to address these questions is going to become the next President of the United States.