By Savannah Hamilton
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinions on ScoonTV
Drugs, Oil, and a $50 Million Bounty
Apparently, peace comes with a price tag — and for Venezuela, it’s $50 million.
That’s how much the US is offering for information leading to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, the man who’s ruled the country since 2013 and clings harder to power with every disputed election.
And nah… Washington doesn’t just call him a dictator anymore. He’s been upgraded to “narco-terrorist,” allegedly running cartels straight out of the presidential palace.
Subtle? Hardly.
But it’s a convenient way to turn Venezuela from a messy democracy problem into a full-blown “national security threat.”
The question is — to what end? Regime change? Or just another political pressure campaign that risks spiraling out of control?
A Long-Running Feud
It’s no secret that US-Venezuela relations were rocky long before Trump entered the scene. Under Hugo Chávez, Caracas became the main spokesperson for anti-American rhetoric in Latin America — from fiery UN speeches calling George W. Bush “the devil” to a foreign policy essentially built on fighting against US influence.
Even Obama, despite his “engagement” vibes, wasn’t exactly buddy-buddy either. In 2015, he imposed sanctions of his own. Ok, Biden has occasionally loosened restrictions or floated oil deals, but mostly out of economic necessity — not because Democrats suddenly went soft on Caracas.
Trump, however, tore up the playbook. In his first term, he flat-out refused to recognize Maduro as president, instead declaring opposition leader Juan Guaidó the country’s “legitimate” head of state. And now, there’s fresh chit-chat behind the scenes of a more serious takedown plan.
Not Exactly News
Surprised? Don’t be. Washington has been toying with the “take Maduro out” idea for years.
Back in 2017, during his first term, Trump floated the idea of flat-out invading Venezuela, but his advisers quickly talked him out of it, warning it would backfire and possibly harm relations with Latin American allies.
In 2020, then-Senator Marco Rubio pushed the same plan. And again, it was dismissed. “Too risky,” they said. Sanctions and diplomatic isolation were the “safer” bet.
So yeah, every recent US administration has butted heads with Caracas. Sure, the tone might shift — Obama cautious, Biden pragmatic, Trump aggressive — but at the end of the day, Venezuela is always cast as the problem.
Taking It to the Next Level
Fast forward to today, and Trump’s second term has dialed everything up a notch. Yes, the gloves are off!
Building on his first-term refusal to recognize Maduro, he’s now slapped the “terrorist” label on Tren de Aragua and the Cartel de los Soles, maintained sanctions strangling Venezuela’s oil economy, and even parked US warships in the Caribbean under the banner of “counter-narcotics operations.”
The economic front is heating up, too. In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order slapping a 25% tariff on Venezuelan imports — and even on goods from any other countries that buy Venezuelan oil.
And in the last few weeks, things have escalated even further.
On September 2, US forces blew up a Venezuelan speedboat, claiming it was tied to the Tren de Aragua gang and loaded with drugs. Eleven people died. Trump even posted video footage of the takedown as proof of victory. Caracas says the victims were just civilian fishermen — and Washington still hasn’t produced evidence of contraband.
Days later, the US Navy intercepted another Venezuelan vessel, detained its crew for hours, and found absolutely nothing. Caracas called it “illegal excessive force” and accused Washington of harassment.
At this point, “counter-narcotics patrols” are starting to look less like drug enforcement and more like the opening credits of a war.
Why Venezuela?
To the average person, Washington’s obsession with Venezuela might look like a classic Yankee power trip. Monroe Doctrine Imperialism for today. But beneath the theatrics are some very real reasons why the two have beef.
Start with drugs. Venezuela is painted as a major source of the US (and global) drug problem, with gangs like the Tren de Aragua accused of trafficking across continents. Labeling Maduro a “narco-terrorist” wasn’t just a fancy villain nickname — it was Washington calling out Caracas for their illicit affairs, plain and simple.
The “narco-terrorist” branding is key. According to US prosecutors, Maduro and his circle aren’t simply corrupt autocrats — they’re the ringleaders of the Cartel de los Soles, using the military to smuggle cocaine across the hemisphere.
Next comes geopolitics. Venezuela is quite a regional heavyweight that happens to be quite cosy with America’s favorite frenemies, notably China and Russia. That makes their affairs more than a neighborhood problem and potentially a geopolitical powder keg.
Add in the alleged ties between Tren de Aragua, Hezbollah, and Iran, and you’ve got the perfect narrative — Venezuela as both cartel and terror state.
But does Washington have airtight proof? That part’s… iffy. Caracas calls it all an excuse for intervention. For every press release accusing Maduro, there’s little hard evidence shown to the public.
Still, once you’re stuck with that label, the line between foreign policy and military operation gets dangerously blurry.
Then there’s migration. Millions of Venezuelans have fled the country, putting pressure on neighboring countries, and while many resettled in Colombia, Brazil, or Mexico, hundreds of thousands have also made it all the way to the US border. No need to explain more here.
And then there’s oil (of course). Venezuela holds some of the largest reserves in the world. Sure, production may be crippled at the moment by sanctions and mismanagement, but the potential is undeniable. In a global crunch, those barrels are too valuable to ignore.
Not to mention, for Venezuela, oil isn’t just an export — it’s the lifeline that keeps the lights on and the regime afloat. Cut off that flow, and you cut off the country’s main source of power. For Washington, that makes oil the pressure point, and controlling it means squeezing Maduro where it hurts most.
For Trump, solving the “Venezuela problem” would be a major win. Drugs, migrants, global rivalries, oil — all tied into a law-and-order narrative that could boost not only his legacy but also the Republican brand.
Diplomatic Deja Vu
So, if all of this recent drama sounds familiar, that’s because it is. The last time Washington slapped drug-trafficking charges on a head of state, it was Manuel Noriega of Panama. In 1989, the US didn’t just sanction him — it invaded, took over his government, and hauled him off to a Miami courtroom.
And yes, it was all sold as part of the “War on Drugs.” (Rings a bell?)
The parallels to Venezuela are hard to ignore — warships, narco-trafficking charges, and a pricey bounty. From a tactical perspective, it looks like a textbook regime-change plot.
But unlike Panama, Venezuela is neither isolated nor weak. It sits at the center of Latin America’s leftist bloc and maintains strategic partnerships with many US rivals. That makes any “Noriega-style solution” significantly riskier as it’s an operation that could heavily impact the region, destabilize international markets, and pull Washington into a very messy situation.
Maduro’s Counterplay
So how does Maduro respond? Unsurprisingly, by presenting himself as Venezuela’s great defender against US “imperialism.” Domestically, that means mobilizing militias, doubling down on the sovereignty rhetoric, and making it clear that any foreign intrusion won’t go unanswered.
He’s been quite vocal about US “meddling,” especially during the 2024 Venezuela-Colombia border flare-ups. Maduro called out these incidents as part of a US-backed proxy effort, using the chaos to worsen anti-US rhetoric and reinforce his image as a leader.
And internationally, survival means leaning harder on allies. China, in particular, has become a crucial partner. With sanctions tightening, Chinese firms have expanded their footprint across oil, mining, and tech — with deals that often benefit Beijing more than Caracas, by the way.
But symbolic gestures, like the very public “Huawei gift,” send a clear message that if Washington escalates, Beijing at least provides diplomatic cover. However, that’s about as far as it goes. Analysts note that China isn’t promising troops or military backing because it’s protecting its own business stakes, not propping up Maduro’s regime. The same goes for Russia and Iran — offering arms, advisors, or trade lifelines, but little more. If Trump decides to bang it out in the streets of Caracas, Maduro will be fighting the Americans alone.
Here’s the irony, though. All this pressure from the US only pushes Maduro tighter into the arms of America’s adversaries, strengthening the very alliances Washington dreads. That’s why some experts warn that further meddling in Venezuela must be handled with care, as each step is a diplomatic tightrope. And one misstep could spark a crisis with no winners.
The High-Stakes Endgame
So, is regime change on the horizon? On paper, all signs point that way.
Because one does not simply put a $50 million bounty on a head of state for kicks and giggles. Add in the US playing battleship in the Caribbean, complete with a drug-war subplot straight out of Narcos, and it’s safe to say that Washington’s got its eye on Venezuela.
But they’re treading carefully and for good reason —the stakes are sky-high and history, including the 2024 Colombia proxy war test run (if you believe the conspiracies), shows exactly why it won’t be easy.
A direct intervention could destabilize the region, trigger a fresh migration surge, push Venezuela deeper into the arms of China and Russia, and rally Latin America’s left against Washington. Instead of a clean win, it could spark a full-blown geopolitical mess.
That’s why, for now, Washington is still playing the pseudo-diplomatic game — sanctions, isolation, military theatrics. But with all the recent escalations and Trump’s second-term bravado, the next move may be closer than anyone thinks.
Curtis Scoon is the founder of ScoonTv.com Download the ScoonTv App to join our weekly livestream every Tuesday @ 8pm EST! Support true independent media. Become a VIP member www.scoontv.com/vip-signup/ and download the ScoonTv App from your App Store.
