Should Kamala Harris Be the Nominee?

By Jeff Charles

Vice President Kamala Harris is emerging as a strong contender against former President Donald Trump, potentially even stronger than Joe Biden, according to a recent CNN/SSRS survey. However, there are plenty of reasons why Democrats should be concerned about her possibly becoming the party’s presidential nominee.

Harris stands a better chance against Trump than Biden, according to a recent poll. In a CNN/SSRS survey, the vice president trailed the former president by only two points. The data showed Biden about six points behind Trump. Harris also performs better than six other potential contenders including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

A New York Times/Siena poll produced similar findings. It had Trump leading Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. The former president was outpacing the vice president 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that Harris led Trump 44 percent to 42 percent. 

Each of these polls falls within the margin of error, meaning that if Harris becomes the nominee, it could be a close race.

In a matchup against Trump, Harris does have some advantages. For starters, her candidacy would eliminate concerns voters have about age and cognitive decline, an issue that has plagued Biden and eventually led to his decision to bow out of the race. The vice president is only 59 years old, much younger than both Biden (81) and Trump (78).

An Ipsos survey released in February showed that 59 percent of voters believed that both Biden and Trump were too old to be president. With Harris as their standard bearer, Democrats would no longer have to worry about age concerns. The party and their allies in the media won’t have to defend the constant gaffes and mishaps that characterized Biden’s presidency.

Race and Gender

Harris’s race and gender are also factors. Indeed, one of the reasons she is more likely to secure the Democratic nomination is because she is a Black woman. The left has painted itself into a corner, meaning that Democrats could not get away with nominating a white male when they have a Black woman serving as vice president.

Of course, the question is: How will Harris’ identity aid her in winning over women and racial minorities? The Black community becomes the proverbial elephant in the room when addressing this question. As a Democrat, she will certainly win the majority of both Black men and women. However, she will probably not garner as much support among the men as she will with women. Still, she could win enough votes among this demographic to offset Trump’s solid support among white, working-class men. 

It is also worth considering how Harris might fare among older voters, many of whom had a favorable impression of President Biden. The New York Times report indicated that Harris does not fare as well with older voters as Biden did. 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Moreover, she will snatch up a considerable percentage of women, a group Trump has struggled to attract. In a survey conducted in January, more women (58 percent) indicated support for Biden than Trump (36 percent). These numbers will undoubtedly improve with Harris as the presidential candidate. Even in this case, it is worth noting that there could be a disparity between married and unmarried women with the latter being more likely to support Harris.

While Harris has at least a few strengths against Trump, there are some glaring weaknesses. For starters, her perceived incompetence will certainly be an issue. At several points during her tenure as vice president, she has shown herself to be ineffective, especially when it comes to immigration.

After President Biden appointed her as border czar, her role was ostensibly aimed at getting to the bottom of the root causes of the ongoing border crisis. She was tasked with identifying the factors occurring in foreign countries that motivated their citizens to make the trek to the United States – legally and illegally. 

Not only did she fail to come up with meaningful solutions, she made an unforced error by refusing even to visit the southern border. During an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt, she was asked why she hadn’t made the trip. Her response: “I haven’t been to Europe, I don’t understand the point you’re making.”

Reports about her toxic managerial style have also dogged Harris’ stint as vice president. Adam Andrzejewski, founder and CEO of openthebooks.com, found that during her first three years as vice president, her office had a 91.5 percent turnover rate. “As of March 31, 2024, only four of the initial 47 staffers from the first year are still employed – consistently and without interruption – by the Vice President,” he wrote in a post on his Substack.

Politico published a report in 2021 revealing the turmoil in her office, with many of her employees expressing frustration with how the office was being managed. More than 20 current and former aides vented about the work environment. “It’s not a healthy environment and people often feel mistreated,” one of Harris’ former aides told the news outlet.

There is also the fact that Harris has been widely unpopular as vice president with some of the lowest approval ratings of others who served in her position. As of this writing, her approval stands at 38.3 percent with her disapproval at 51.4 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Another issue has less to do with Harris and more with Biden. The president’s tenure in the White House has been anything but successful. With inflation continuing to make life harder for Americans due to his failure to address the ongoing border crisis, this administration has been an unmitigated disaster.

Even the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, a move with which most Americans agreed, was fraught with incompetence and disorganization. Much of this is not Harris’ fault, but as a powerful member of the administration, she’ll have to answer for what occurred during Biden’s presidency. Republicans will undoubtedly hammer Harris with her boss’ failures.

There is also the immigration issue, which has only worsened under President Biden. Harris has been roundly criticized for her inability to address the problem despite being appointed as border czar. Indeed, Democrats and members of the press are already trying to spin Harris’ immigration failures, relying on talking points sent out by her campaign.

Harris has an uphill climb if she wants to defeat Trump. At this point, the race is his to lose. However, this does not mean the vice president doesn’t have a fighting chance. There are still about three months left in the race and anything can happen. Indeed, there are still plenty of voters who will show up to the polls simply to deny Trump another term in office, which could work in Harris’ favor. Moreover, the former president could still make mistakes that might alienate potential voters.

The success of the vice president’s campaign could also be influenced by who she chooses for her running mate. So far, several possible contenders are being considered, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and several others. Some have suggested that choosing a moderate might signal that she is moving towards the center, which could help her appeal to more voters.

While early indications suggest that Harris has the nomination wrapped up, anything could happen — especially if her poll numbers become less favorable between now and the Democratic National Convention. Nevertheless, this will be a hard-fought race regardless of who the Democrats choose as their eventual nominee.