Trump, China, and the Fight For Africa
By Kathurima Mwongera
Although Trump has declared that his favorite word in the dictionary is “tariff”, Africa is not a key target for Trump’s tariff wars, except for the proposed 10% tax on all imports into America. However, the continent will almost certainly feel the impact of a US-China rivalry. The effect could be either positive or negative depending on several factors that these two powerful actors control. The effects could also emanate from how African leaders choose to respond to the rivalry and engage with each of the two nations. In this article, we look into some of the probable effects that Trump’s trade war with China could have on Africa.
Africa Still Matters to the US
Despite his public comments that showed contempt and neglect for Africa in his first term, Trump still initiated projects that were aimed at increasing trade between Africa and the US. These included Prosper Africa which was meant to help American companies doing business in Africa. The program helped to increase job opportunities for young Africans. According to Tibor Nagy, who was Trump’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in his first term, Trump understands China’s threat to American interests in Africa. Nagy believes that Trump will strengthen the African policies that began in his first term. With Trump seeking to counter China’s influence in Africa, he could expand such policies that are aligned with his determination to protect American interests across the globe.
Trump may, however, not be keen on the continent as a whole but may primarily focus on specific countries where American interests are high. These include countries with strategic benefits such as mineral resources or security arrangements. That may give China the room to extend its influence in other African countries like South Africa, a founding member of BRICS.
Mineral exports from Africa to China have steadily increased over the last two decades. A trade war between China and the US would lead to an increased US interest in African resources to counter China’s control over vital minerals such as lithium and cobalt. The Lobito Corridor is one such huge investment by the US that primarily targets the mining and transportation of key minerals from the DRC.
Economic Benefits For Africa
Since 2013, China has invested over $700 billion in Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This has increased China’s influence in the continent. If Trump takes an investment approach in Africa, this may benefit the continent in terms of development where the continent gets investments from both the US and China in their act of muscle flexing. Trump, however, could try to use a different approach to make the US a more favorable investment partner.
China has been accused of using a debt trap as a strategy to control the nations it funds in its BRI initiatives. Unlike Chinese projects and engagements with African governments, the US seeks to promote transparency across the globe. This is a strength that the US could build on to sway public opinion in Africa against the Chinese. This would lead to more transparency in government transactions, better value for money, and avoiding Chinese debt traps.
Whereas Chinese firms are competitive in terms of road and bridge construction, American companies do better in Africa concerning health care, technology, and green energy. In the event Trump wishes to compete with China directly on the African continent, this might lead to more benefits for Africa in other areas beyond road and bridge construction.
Currently, China is Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner, with a trade volume of $282 billion in 2023. China has also become Africa’s largest bilateral creditor. More investments translate to more jobs for youth in Africa. Would the US open more cash doors to African nations to compete with China and make the continent turn to the US as its traditional partner? If this happens, more investments could flow into the continent.
Decoupling of the World’s Two Largest Economies
For a while now since the beginning of 2023, the EU and the US have been pursuing a derisking strategy from overreliance on the Chinese economy for supplies. This pursuit and the likelihood of a trade war between China and the US in the coming year might also lead to the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies. Whereas the short-term effects of such a move would lead to the disruption of world supply chains and inflation, African countries could seize the opportunity to fill the gaps left by such disruption. This could only happen if African countries move swiftly and strategically. Unfortunately, Africa has not shown great progress in this regard to reshaping global supply chains with India, Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia taking the lead and benefiting from the derisking and decoupling strategies of the West. African leaders should do more to take part in reshaping the new global trade.
Potential Global Trade War
If Trump goes ahead to implement his proposal of a 10% import tax on all imports into the US from all countries, this would greatly impact African economies. Countries that have the leverage to retaliate will do so and others will shift to trade with China, the EU, and India, among others. This would certainly hurt the US economy and disrupt global supply chains. Tariffs would cause inflation, lead to an economic downturn, shrink the US economy, and reduce investments. Estimates by organizations such as the IMF, Moody’s, Tax Foundation, and EY show that the US GDP would shrink as a result of a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
Trump might also push through with policies such as decoupling from China, friendshoring, reshoring, and nearshoring further disrupting global supply chains. When global supply chains are disrupted, it is the poorest countries, most of which are in Africa, that suffer the consequences. Supplies to Africa will become more expensive as rich nations scramble to save their economies by prioritizing the needs of their citizens. This happened at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war where supplies of wheat, fertilizer, and oil were disrupted leading to inflation. Poorer nations in Africa were hurt the most because they lacked the competitiveness of richer nations in quickly finding alternatives. African countries also suffer from a disruption to global supply chains because they do not have huge reserves for food and other commodities like their more prosperous counterparts.
Existing Agreements Between the US and Africa and a Stronger Dollar
Trump is an ardent supporter of the dollar. He has even threatened to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS nations in case they proceed with their plans of de-dollarization. In the event that these Trump policies lead to a stronger dollar, African countries will suffer increased costs of servicing their debts as a result of relatively weaker currencies.
Will Trump’s administration initiate more major infrastructural projects for Africa such as the Lobito Corridor? It is hard to say. Although there are fears that Trump might even pull out of some of these projects, Nagy believes that even Trump himself would have supported such a project and would thus support its completion.
Considering his comments and threats to friendly partners such as NATO, the EU, and Canada, there are fears that President Trump would pursue bilateral trade only with nations that he considers friendly. Such an approach would negatively affect US agreements with Africa such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). If Trump pursues bilateral engagements with only friendly nations, aid to Africa might also be reduced greatly.
One key area that would suffer the most is aid related to climate change. In 2022, Trump even said that climate change is a hoax. It would be expected that Trump would cut if not stop any climate funding to African countries. A reduction in aid in other areas such as healthcare would have devastating effects on poor African countries that cannot either fund their healthcare needs or find alternative sources of funding. The positive side to such reduced US aid is that it would compel African nations to pursue self-development and self-reliance.
Unlike President Obama and Biden, Trump did not organize a US-Africa Leaders Summit further making his contemptuous views on the continent clear. Nevertheless, Trump could be keen on promoting bilateral trade ties with individual African countries that he considers important. This approach would, however, water down President Biden’s doctrine of the US and Africa being equal partners. On the other hand, China heavily engages with Africa through BRI and other platforms such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). China may increase its engagement with Africa to look for alternative markets for its exports.
Geopolitical Effects
The US has been the traditional partner for Africa. Africa benefited greatly from the US in areas such as democratic governance, transparency, accountability, media freedom, and advancement of civil societies. Trump’s affinity for leaders such as President Putin and Viktor Orbán of Hungary, however, makes him appear to love authoritarian leaders. This could be interpreted to mean that he may not put pressure on African leaders that are considered autocratic and this would further weaken the advancement of African democracy and promote authoritarian regimes across the continent.
Trump did not visit Africa in his first term. Chinese top officials, however, visit the African continent frequently and invite African leaders to the homeland more than the US does. Could this change during Trump’s second term to counter China’s influence on the continent? Although Trump has openly shown contempt for Africa, he would most likely not isolate the continent, especially in his fight with China.
If anything, he would wish to strengthen Washington’s presence in key African countries. This would be particularly more important with the recent coups in West Africa and the nations’ turn against the West. Although there is a high likelihood that Trump will promote bilateral relationships with African countries that he considers strategic, there are existing bilateral relationships that might suffer. For example, Trump might have constrained relationships with South Africa which is a member of BRICS. BRICS has floated the idea of de-dollarization, something that Trump is against. South Africa has also been exploring greater ties with China and Russia, and this may make Trump treat South Africa as an unfriendly country. There are, however, specific countries that may benefit from a Trump presidency. These include Kenya which was recently designated as a major non-NATO U.S. ally.
Although we may try to understand Donald Trump and his policies, many agree that it is hard to predict them. For example, banks such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Wells Fargo believe that trade policies under President Trump would be so unorthodox they’d be
hard to model. In this regard, Ronak Gopaldas, a Consultant and Signal Risk Director at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) feels that the African countries that are likely to benefit from the next Trump presidency are those that play to his “ego and self-proclaimed dealmaker status.” These will be the countries that can offer the US a return on investment and align with the US economic and security priorities. At the heart of this US benefit would be countries that chose to align with Trump’s interests which to a large extent will include shunning China.
