Is India Aligning With President Trump Against China?
By Umer Beigh
The trade conflict between China and the US escalated after US President Donald Trump outlined a rough trajectory for China where he announced reciprocal tariffs on China and India. President Trump singled out the auto sector. This development came shortly after the US had already doubled tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20%.
In response to the US measures, Chinese authorities increased tariffs by an additional 10 to 15% on American agricultural products and 25% on American companies’ exports and investments, citing security concerns: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war, we are ready to fight until the end,” the Chinese Embassy in the US tweeted.
Our country has been ripped off by everybody and that stops now…
President Trump responded. From March 12 onwards, Trump’s 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports went into effect with the US President asserting that these taxes would generate US factory employment during the period when his fluctuating tariffs policies unsettled the stock market. In the coming months, how trade ties evolve amid the fear of an all-out trade war will define the security of the South and East Asian region.
Meanwhile, there is a common belief in India that External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar may have convinced newly appointed President Trump during his January visit about how India could provide a cheap alternative to replace China.
At the London event, Jaishankar said, the policy shift in the US is “expected” and “it suits India” in many ways: “When I look at our interests and expectations for the relationship, I see a lot of promise. Conceptually, I believe we are seeing a president and administration that, in our parlance, are moving toward multipolarity. This is something that suits India…We have never had any issues with American presidents, at least in recent times,” the minister added
The underlying reality is that the threat of China’s growing economy is compelling the US to look toward India.
India-US Deepening Defense Ties
Talking in the Oval Office on March 7, President Trump pointed at India and China saying they have agreed to cut their tariffs way down now “because somebody’s finally exposed them for what they’ve done”.
During his roundtable meeting with CEOs, Trump added the tariffs were encouraging companies to invest in US factories: “The higher it goes, the more likely it is they’re going to build,” he stressed.
India and China—the two neighbors—have attempted to normalize this relationship at the disputed vicinity of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), signaling strategic recalibrations after the two sides entered a less hostile agreement, if not a return of normalcy, last October. As per estimates, the trade imbalance between them surpassed $85.1 billion last year.
China and India have a long history of “fragile” bilateral relationship which is rooted in “mutual mistrust” due to the ongoing border dispute. In the words of theorist John Mearsheimer,
If the Chinese threat were to disappear, then the US and India wouldn’t be nearly as friendly.
Indian policymakers have consistently accused China of “weaponizing” the trade deficit that favors the Chinese surplus economy. This January, China blocked de facto imports of machinery components for electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles (EVs), dealing a significant setback to India’s manufacturing sector, with companies like Foxconn, BYD, and Lenovo being affected. India’s success in electronic exports, and a tendency to early industrialization is perceived as a threat by China, as identified by Srijan Shukla, a research fellow at Observer Research Foundation.
Chinese growing assertiveness in the region is compelling India to diversify its technological transfer and defense supplies, India realises the importance of geopolitical shift with Russia coming closer to China following its Ukraine-Russia war.
It is this trade deficit and fragile trust that have pushed India to reduce its reliance on Russia and increase its imports, particularly in weaponry, from the US. India remains wary of the growing Chinese power in the region, pushing the country to acquire greater assistance from the US in terms of its economic and military modernization.
In September 2024, India and the US conducted a joint military exercise in the northwestern state of Rajasthan, Yudh Abhyas, as a prelude to increasing the troops strength and equipment.
Moving Towards the East
While elaborating on this policy shift, Frederic Grare, former director of the Centre for Social Sciences and Humanities, argues in his book “India Turns East” that convergence of interests between Washington and New Delhi extends to major regional issues, including tensions in the South China Sea and the evolving political landscape in Myanmar. Frederic writes,
India doesn’t intend to be caught in a zero-sum game between the US and China.
Having shared a long history of political proximity with Moscow, India emerged from the Cold War on the “wrong side of history” and has largely been isolated in Asia and beyond until the economic reforms of the 1990s. Not long ago, Indian troops along with the personnel of the US Navy, also conducted drills in the key maritime domain of the Indian Ocean to reinforce the commitment to an open Indo-Pacific.
Considering India’s arms imports from Russia have fallen by 76% between 2009 and 2013, as per a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This space has allowed the US to offer India an availability of superior technology, thus prompting them to diversify their purchase of weaponry, leading to numbers falling to 36% between 2019 and 2023.
Nevertheless, India remains heavily dependent on Russia to purchase spare parts and ammunition. Over 86% of India’s equipment, weaponry, and platforms were of Russian origin. To replace such a large inventory is a long and drawn-out process that will span many years.
On February 14, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in a statement expressed the country’s will to formalize a ten-year defense framework with the US, expected to be signed later this year. This agreement that will run from 2025 to 2035 will lay the foundation for deepening military partnerships, with a clear focus on technology, trade, and defense industrial cooperation.
While India has so far purchased P-81 maritime patrol aircraft, Apache attack helicopters, and Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, the BJP-led administration continues to review its policy discussions with the US regarding the joint production of fifth generation jet engines, which is deemed to become a key shift in technological transfer.
Many Indian policy thinkers, including the former ambassador of India to the US, Navtej Sarna, opine that
The Trump-led administration is clearly a continuation of the Biden administration’s policy toward India. There is obviously repackaging because all administrations want to take credit for doing something new, but there’s something new in this repackaging that continues the Biden 2.0 era in US-India relations.
For India, relying on its Look East Policy amidst the ongoing China-US rivalry and the uncertainties of US commitment to Asia’s security is becoming a matter of concern.
Since China is becoming more assertive in its comprehensive strategy, which includes both political and military dimensions. The Indian government is feeling apprehensive about the congruence of India and US objectives regarding China.
Both India and the US share similar concerns towards China, but they continue to differ in their tactics and views on the role China should play in the emerging regional architecture. The reality, however, remains that the US bilateral policies are viewed positively in New Delhi. Paradoxically, it is the multidimensional aspects of the US’s rebalancing of its Asia policy that are pushing New Delhi closer to China.
