By J. Simpson
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinions on ScoonTV
Cuba’s been making headlines again recently, with everyone from The Atlantic to the BBC running news pieces and Op-Eds about the tropical island off the coast of Florida. Some of the headlines are due to President Trump mentioning Cuba in passing, making the ominous comment “You’re next!” before backtracking immediately. Other analysis is far more substantive, claiming that Cuba “constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security, citing its ties to “countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States, including the Government of the Russian Federation (Russia), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Government of Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah,” as the White House put it in a recent Executive Order on Cuba. This perceived threat allowed the Trump Administration to place Cuba under an oil embargo, further impoverishing the already beleaguered nation-state.
To better understand what might be in store for Cuba, we’ve got to start with a brief look at its history. Understanding Cuba’s past is integral to truly getting a handle on where El Caiman may be heading.
A Short History of Cuba
Modern Cuban history begins in 1492 with Christopher Columbus’ expedition to the New World, where he claimed the island for Spain. Formally occupied and settled in 1511, Cuba would remain a Spanish colony until 1898, except for 11 months when the British briefly occupied Havana.
Cuba first attempted to shake off the yoke of colonial rule in 1868, resulting in the 10-Year War taking place from 1868 to 1878. They finally succeeded in gaining independence from Spain in 1902, partially due to help from the United States. Cuba’s independence launched a period of incredible instability for the next 50 years, when the small island would experience several coups and tyrannical regimes, resulting in brutal dictatorship and the slow cancellation of democracy in Cuba. This instability and corruption caused the United States to remove the last of its lingering support by the 1950s, resulting in Cuba turning to Communist Russia for aid. This was the death knell for friendly relations between Cuba and the United States for the next 60 years, as mid-century Americans watched in horror and dread to see if Cuba would annihilate the United States with Russian nuclear weapons during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
This period of tension saw the United States place Cuba under an embargo, also for the next 60 years, spiralling the country into perpetual poverty and giving rise to Fidel Castro’s brutal regime. Castro’s death in 2008 opened a new door to U.S./Cuban relations, especially when President Obama took office in 2014. Both countries reopened embassies on one another’s soil in 2015, launching a new era of collaboration between the two neighbors that would be cut tragically short when President Trump renewed many of the business and travel restrictions that President Obama had rolled back.
The New Cuban Crisis
On March 16, 2026, Cuba’s Ministry of Energy and Mines posted an update to social media stating that the entire country was experiencing a blackout. It was the third nationwide collapse of the electrical grid in the last three months alone. These rolling blackouts are just the latest aspect of the United States’ economic sanctions against Cuba, which have resulted in catastrophic shortages of food, fuel, and power.
During his second term, President Trump isn’t restricting his aspirations towards Cuba to passive measures. Reports have been circulating that the Trump Administration has been attempting to remove Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel from office. Insiders are murmuring that he intends to turn his attention to Cuba when – or if – the war in Iran winds down.
This new tension comes in the wake of the Executive Order signed by President Trump in January 2026. This order called for a renewal of sanctions against Cuba due to the country’s connections with numerous hostile nations as well as the persecution of political opponents, suppression of free speech and the press, and violations of human rights. This executive order placed new economic restrictions on Cuba, including imposing new tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with crude oil. These oil restrictions are responsible for the rolling blackouts that have been plaguing the country for the last several months. It’s also causing food shortages due to difficulties with transportation and a lack of drinking water.
Although strict government restrictions have prevented widespread social unrest, the feeling of resentment, frustration, and fear is difficult to entirely contain. Public protests have increased exponentially each month of 2026, and a group of protestors even attacked a Communist office on March 14.
Interestingly, the Trump Administration’s antagonistic attitude towards Cuba is a rare break in the U.S./Russian consensus, with Russia issuing a public statement reproaching the United States for meddling with a sovereign nation. Trump recently allowed a Russian oil tanker to deliver a couple of weeks’ worth of oil to Cuba, further complicating the relationship between these two frenemies.
Time will tell if President Trump intends to follow through on his threat to make Cuba the next Venezuela or if he’s merely attempting to generate a haze of distracting headlines as part of his endless game of 4D chess. Considering that he seemed to walk back his statements almost instantly, it seems even he doesn’t know. Whatever happens, the Cuban spirit and national identity – with its bold, powerful music; colorful fashion; delicious food; and vibrant spirit – will endure.
Although the saying “next year in Cuba!” is popular among Cuban immigrants – echoing the phrase “next year in Jerusalem” at the end of the Passover seder of Jewish people – it seems to be more symbolic than realistic at this point. A report published in 2013 states that only 15.6% of Cubans reported being “very likely to return to Cuba” as of 2007. That number has likely shrunk even further, as many Cuban immigrants had hoped to return to Cuba to pick up the pieces of their former lives. A majority of Cubans living in exile now relate more to their chosen homes than their ancestral roots. Each successive generation of Hispanic immigrants tends to identify more with their adopted country than with where they emigrated from, as noted in the Pew Research Center’s “The ways Hispanics describe their identity vary across immigrant generations.” Considering that three to four generations have passed since the first wave of Cuban immigrants in 1961, following the invasion of the Bay of Pigs. One out of three of those immigrants’ grandchildren is as likely to think of themselves as American as Cuban.
President Trump’s involvement with the future of Cuba makes matters even more complicated. After reinstating strict economic sanctions earlier this year, President Trump has expressed an interest in a “friendly takeover of Cuba,” which some analysts have referred to as “Gaza without the bombs.” Although Cuba isn’t as resource-rich as Venezuela or Iran, it’s got a lucrative tourism industry that’s already under the control of the military. Analysts speculate that American corporations could be granted management contracts for government-owned properties in exchange for exemption from certain economic sanctions. This suggests that the Trump Administration isn’t exactly working in good faith, operating more like a protection racket to enrich certain American corporations than for the good of the Cuban people or American investors not already locked into the circle of regime change.
Given the corruption and rampant unpopularity of Cuba’s communist regime, it’s clear that something needs to change. It’s not as clear that anybody currently in power is the right person to implement such widespread reform, however, as no one seems like they’re acting with the best interests of everyday Cuban citizens in mind.
For anyone looking for a deeper understanding of Cuban history and culture, to get a better read on what’s next for Cuba, you might start with Richard Gott’s Cuba: A New History to get a sense of the country’s long history of revolution and resistance. Ada Ferrer’s Pulitzer-winning Cuba: An American History will give you a deeper understanding of the long, intertwined history of Cuba and the United States. Finally, The Cuba Reader: History, Culture, Politics by Aviva Chomsky, Barry Carr, and Pamela Maria Smorkaloff offers a rich overview of Cuban culture, offering an in-depth glimpse into the fascinating history and culture of this beleaguered, indomitable island.
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