By Savannah Hamilton
On January 3rd, 2026, the US Delta Force raided a military compound in Caracas and walked out with Nicolás Maduro in handcuffs, wearing an oversized Nike Tech Fleece tracksuit. Once Trump posted the photo, the internet completely lost its mind.
The “Maduro Fit” went viral, the grey combo sold out within hours, and someone called it “incredible guerrilla marketing” (no pun intended). The irony, of course, is that the man who spent decades railing against American capitalism got arrested in $140 of it.
There’s no argument that Nike won January 3rd. But did Venezuela? That’s up for debate.
It’s now been over four months since the country got a taste of what Washington is calling “liberation,” and at first glance… yes, things seem to be looking up. Direct flights from Miami to Caracas are back, the US embassy has reopened, political prisoners are being freed, and foreign investors are circling like Silicon Valley VCs.
By basic metrics, Venezuela is having a glow-up moment. Technically, yes — until you look closer.
The Highlight Reel
It would be a lie to say things haven’t changed, because they have, and for the better. Progress, while not dramatic, is very real.
Let’s start with US and international relations. The reopening of the US embassy and the formal restoration of diplomatic ties for the first time since 2019 is not only a symbolic gesture — it significantly changes how Venezuela is viewed on the global stage, its access to financial systems, and its ability to attract legitimate business. Absolutely nothing to sneeze at. Being under the US umbrella has perks.
The political prisoner releases matter too. Hundreds of people detained for opposing Maduro (opposition campaign managers, human rights activists, journalists…) are now finally walking free under a new amnesty law. Democracy, it seems, is peeking out from behind the clouds.
Arguably, the biggest thing, however, would be the hydrocarbons law, which some would argue is the one thing Trump really wanted out of his “invasion.” After all, Venezuela sits on the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, which for years have largely been left ignored thanks to sanctions, corruption, and a hostile environment towards foreign businesses. The new law changes that, making it easier for energy companies worldwide to collaborate with the country and, theoretically, ignite a much-needed economic revival that reaches the Venezuelan people. Not to mention, with the current situation in Iran, Venezuelan oil is oh-so-valuable right now.
And then there are the flights. On April 30th, the first direct US–Caracas journey in seven years touched down via American Airlines, with United launching its own route in August. Qatar Airways is also arriving in July, making history as the first Gulf carrier to ever serve Venezuela. Not bad! After years of rerouting and layovers just to get home, Venezuelans can finally buy a direct ticket and reunite with family. If nothing else, it feels nice to finally not be cut off from the world.
On paper, it’s pretty convincing progress. Improvement in diplomacy, human rights, energy, business, and connectivity — and all that in around four months. Impressive, right?
On Second Thought…
The flights are a feel-good story with an asterisk. That inaugural Miami-Caracas route had fewer than 100 passengers, with return tickets starting at $1,200. Obviously, no one was expecting Spirit Airlines prices, but in a country where the official minimum wage just increased to $240 a month, and most people earn considerably less than that, saying this route is “inaccessible” to many is putting it lightly. At least United was brutally honest about who they’re planning on catering to — oil sector workers and businessmen. So tourism (which is expected to rise only 25% at best with these new legs) remains a future projection, not a present reality.
Meanwhile, the prisoner releases are more complicated than the press release suggests. Of an estimated 800+ political prisoners, independently verified releases account for a fraction of the claimed numbers — the government has a habit of counting releases from prior years in its tallies. At the moment, over 500 are believed to still be incarcerated.
The economy hasn’t turned a corner either. Yes, the minimum wage increase is real, but food alone costs nearly three times that. Oil revenue promises a future turnaround, but for now, the people most in need of that revival are still waiting for it to show up on the table.
Overall, international relations look better on the surface, but scratch beneath, and the picture gets complicated. Two of Venezuela’s most significant long-term allies (i.e., China and Russia) have notably cooled since Maduro’s removal. A Venezuela pivoting toward Washington is considerably less useful to either of them. Whether that’s a good or bad thing remains to be seen.
Democracy is definitely making itself visible, but shyly. Yes, opposition figures can now protest publicly, and people can cautiously speak more freely. But when it comes to elections, the government’s position is essentially “we’ll get to it when we get to it.” Never mind that 68% of Venezuelans want a vote within the year, or that opposition leader María Corina Machado sits at a 76% approval rating — a number that tells you everything about what a free and fair election would actually produce, and probably explains why one hasn’t yet been scheduled. But more on that later…
And then there’s the backstage that isn’t made obviously visible to the audience. The US may be extending a hand, but Venezuela’s government is arguably operating with one hand tied behind its back. The reforms, the prisoner releases, the open doors to foreign investment — these didn’t happen because Rodríguez woke up one morning feeling generous, but because the alternative was losing her seat at the high table.
Simply but perfectly put, “We have more flexibility,” one Venezuelan told CNN. “But not freedom.”
Madurismo Sin Maduro
Although Washington prefers not to say it out loud, the people running Venezuela today are arguably the same people who were running Venezuela yesterday. Same party, same institutions, same military, and same intelligence apparatus — which is still very much active, by the way.
Even Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s “new” acting president, was previously Maduro’s VP, and like him, she is a committed Chavista — a true socialist, anti-imperialist, state-controls-everything believer.
True, she’s been quick (faster than expected, actually) to push reforms, reopen diplomatic channels, and stabilise the situation just enough to get Trump’s nod of approval, but she is far from a disruptionist. She was sworn in with the blessing of the Venezuelan Supreme Court, the military, and even Maduro’s own son.
Meanwhile, the whispers in Venezuelan opposition circles? Something along the lines of Maduro 2.0, just with heels and better PR.
That said, she’s not above firing back when needed. When Trump and the White House floated the idea of Venezuela becoming a “51st state” (because territorial expansion is “so hot right now“), she fired back hard. Venezuela, she declared, would never become part of the United States. Which, ironically, she says while handing over the country’s oil to American companies.
She is, by diplomatic definition, playing both sides while walking a tightrope. Whether she can keep her balance is another question entirely.
The Deal with the Devil
Where things get genuinely interesting is in a recent piece by the Miami Herald, which claims this transition didn’t happen by accident, not purely the result of Delta Force kicking down a door, but a matter of line of succession.
According to the paper, Rodríguez and her inner circle had been drawing up a plan long before Maduro was captured, with the base of it being that he goes out, she takes over, Venezuela opens up to Western investment, and the US backs off on regime change. The negotiations reportedly ran through Qatari back channels and involved US envoy Richard Grenell. The only difference from the actual outcome is that the original plan had Maduro going into exile — a down-low, face-saving exit, not handcuffs, the fashion police, and a Brooklyn courtroom. That part didn’t go to plan, though, to be fair, Trump did give him that option at first.
It’s worth noting, too, that this wasn’t Washington’s first rodeo trying to cut a deal with Caracas. As I covered in a previous piece, the US had long attempted negotiations with Maduro himself — dangling sanctions relief and normalisation in exchange for cooperation. But stubborn Maduro, to his credit (or his detriment), just wouldn’t bite. His principles, or his death grip on power, were apparently non-negotiable. Hence, Washington ran out of patience, and Plan B turned out to be a military raid.
Meanwhile, Rodríguez, watching all of this unfold from the front row, apparently took notes.
What we’re left with, as some analysts see it, is not a liberation story but a “managed transition” — the Chavista machine betting that swapping one man for survival was worth it, and the US betting that oil access and regional influence were worth playing government puppet master one more time. The transaction, stripped of all its rhetoric, is access to Venezuela’s resources in exchange for Venezuela’s rulers keeping their seats. A deal with the devil, if you will — except both sides are convinced they got the better end.
But ordinary Venezuelans didn’t get a vote on any of this, and may not have a say anytime soon either.
As mentioned before, the government has made it pretty clear it’s in no hurry to call elections, which, through the lens of anyone who lived through Maduro’s “trust me, bro” era, is starting to look uncomfortably familiar.
At the same time, the opposition is concerned that things might improve too much before a vote happens. If Rodríguez stabilises the economy even a little, delivers a few visible wins, and lets some oil money trickle down to ordinary people, the urgency for change cools. A slightly less miserable Venezuela might not vote out the Chavistas after all. The very progress being celebrated in headlines is, for the opposition, a ticking clock.
Maybe We’re Expecting Too Much, Too Soon
Yes, we live in a fast-paced world where we want everything done yesterday, but we have to be realistic and acknowledge that it’s only been a little over four months, and we’re dealing with real people here.
You can’t dismantle decades of mismanagement, sanctions, and economic collapse overnight, no matter how hard you try. Rebuilding a country with a long and problematic history is like doing a full home renovation while making sure the residents inside are still living at least moderately comfortably. That takes time, money, and a solid foundation — none of which Venezuela has right now, but (hopefully) will eventually.
Even Trump has acknowledged that, before anything else, getting Venezuela’s oil industry back on its feet is the priority — everything else follows from that. And on this one, he’s not wrong. Oil is Venezuela’s engine. Fix that, and you have a much better chance at boosting the economy, attracting tourism, rebuilding the country’s international image, and yes… eventually, getting to that election everyone keeps asking about. But skip straight to the fun stuff without laying the groundwork, and it can all fall apart as fast as it came together.
Some of it might not happen at all, depending on who’s steering the ship and where the money goes. But the potential is real, and if done right, Venezuela could become one of the most remarkable comeback stories in history. It’s a big if, but not an impossible one.
Same Story, Different Face
Venezuela today isn’t what it was four months ago, but let’s not oversell it either.
Sure, the flights are real, the freed prisoners are real, the oil deals are real. But so are the empty fridges and the lost faith in the government. Yes, we have progress, but underneath it all, the same political machine is the one turning the wheels. So, maybe Maduro is gone, but the system that put him there definitely isn’t.
Call it reform, call it pragmatism, call it a necessary compromise — but let’s not call it something it isn’t.
Venezuela has been here before, on a road to something that looks like change, but with goalposts that keep moving.
Whether any of that actually changes is a question the next few years will answer. Venezuela’s people deserve better than a managed transition designed by and for everyone except them. Whether they’ll get it — that’s a story for another day.
