By Savannah Hamilton
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinions on ScoonTV
Although midterm elections are coming up in a few months, somewhere in Washington, a Democratic strategist is doing absolutely nothing about it. And believe it or not, it might be their most brilliant political move yet, because the Republican Party is arguably doing all the campaign work for them.
President Donald Trump ran his last presidential campaign on no more wars — or at least no more forever wars, depending on who you ask. That was the pitch. America First. Stop wasting money on never-ending conflicts, and have the US become the once-envied global superpower again.
Unfortunately, with the “shit-uation” in Iran now entering its 6th month and showing no signs of tapering, some are starting to ask what exactly this means for the midterms.
After all, this war was supposed to be in-and-out, wrapping up as “cleanly” as Venezuela did. Instead, it dragged on, dented the economy, and kept eating away at the Republicans’ reputation.
The majority of Americans don’t support this war, and clearly, this conflict has turned out to be more trouble than it’s worth. What’s worse is that signing off on any peace deal anytime soon won’t undo the damage that’s already been done — and that damage could cost Trump and the GOP their grip on power in the upcoming elections.
Money Talks
For most people, the main concern isn’t who’s bombing who but how it’s affecting their daily lives — or even more importantly, their bank account. And given the average American wasn’t exactly in a comfortable financial spot to begin with, that’s not a small thing to brush off.
Iran is fighting back with more enthusiasm and staying power than the White House expected; the consequences showed up almost immediately. Every time the Strait of Hormuz shut down, another tanker got hit, or oil prices jumped, the damage was felt in every corner of the globe. It moved straight into the cost of everything part of the global supply chain (which is effectively… everything) — and from there into inflation and the weekly grocery run.
But wait, the economy’s doing great, isn’t it? At least that’s the story the Trump administration keeps trying to sell.
Sure… if you happen to be invested in defense stocks, which are having a bombastic year while taxpayers foot the bill. Or if you’re one of the relative few currently benefiting from AI, which is busy doing its own damage to job security on a completely separate track. For everyone else, it’s two fronts they’re fighting at once — a war pushing prices up, and a technology shift dragging down job security.
The timing could not be worse either. Cost of living was already a top issue for most voters long before the conflict escalated, and yet another bullet point Trump built his campaign around.
So, Iran arguably handed Democrats a ready-made example of how foreign-policy decisions end up on ordinary people’s receipts. Republicans can talk about strength and resolve and patriotism all they want. Dealing with Iran, at some point, might have been necessary, after all; they are the “Death to America” crew, but people are looking at higher bills and asking what (or who) exactly got them here. And they aren’t going to blame the Ayatollahs.
And again, even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, gas prices wouldn’t snap back overnight, and groceries wouldn’t magically go on discount. We all know how capitalism works.
A Party At War With Itself
This economic hangover isn’t just making voters nervous — it’s starting to turn Republicans against each other. Obviously, not a great look heading into an election.
Even supporters will agree that Trump remains a deeply controversial figure with the broader public, despite outperforming his first round in many respects. Meanwhile, the loyalist base backing him this time is tighter and more disciplined than before, which means there’s less room for disagreement before the cracks start showing.
On one side are the America First voters who never signed up for war with Iran. Even some of the early backers are beginning to realize that it’s turning into the very kind of endless entanglement Trump once rallied against.
On the other side are the ultras who still insist the only acceptable outcome is total victory and talk of anything less is weakness and defeatism. That side happens to be quite stubborn, and the longer the fighting continues, the louder the argument gets — it’s all or nothing here. That’s exactly how wars escalate and truly become conflicts that linger for years.
Perhaps most surprisingly, Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the clearest symbol of the split. He was skeptical of the war from the start, which is likely why some say he was tasked with selling the interim peace deal. When the memorandum of understanding collapsed, the backlash landed more on him than Trump. And with that, some of the same voices that once cheered the strikes suddenly started calling the agreement a giveaway.
Along the way, Vance has also found himself in a very public conflict with parts of the Israeli government. In June, he told their cabinet members to “wake up and smell the reality,” reminding them that the US was essentially “the only powerful ally” still sympathetic to Israel. Not long after, he started pointing fingers at figures within the Israeli government of running influence campaigns to keep the war going indefinitely — a charge that only widened the fractures within Republican ranks.
But wait, there’s more, and the grievances keep piling up. Some influential members of the party are accusing the administration of protecting its “oligarch buddies” in the defense industry while ordinary Americans absorb the economic hit. Others simply feel the original promise (AKA no more forever wars) has been broken.
Republican Representative Thomas Massie went at it on X just a few days ago, posting, “We should have known what they were up to when they renamed it from the Department of Defense to the Department of War.” (For the record, the Department of War actually was the original name up until 1947 — though that historical fact hasn’t exactly calmed anyone down.)
The result is a party that can’t quite decide what message it wants to send. Some members are pushing to keep fighting, while others are voting to limit further military action. Either way, none of this looks like a disciplined governing majority heading into a difficult midterm.
The Importance of Public Perception
Poll numbers prove that this is becoming a real problem, even if the administration won’t fully admit it yet. Trump came into the term with relatively solid numbers, but they had already started going down by the time the war began. However, nothing tanked them quite like Iran did.
Within days of the first strikes, his approval dropped dramatically, and by June, several major trackers had his net points diving to around –25. Even among Republicans and his 2024 voters, the numbers took a dip, which means relying purely on a loyalist base come November is starting to look a lot riskier than a few months ago.
Add the fact that most Americans still disapprove of how he’s handling the domestic economic fiasco, and the political picture gets even messier. A president underwater on multiple issues at the same time is not the strongest foundation for defending a narrow congressional majority.
Which Is Why We Have “Insurance”
One secret subplot people might have missed in their morning news is that Republicans saw a tough time coming before Iran even entered the picture. Their solution to that was redistricting — redrawing congressional maps across multiple states to lock in a few extra “safe” seats ahead of November.
To be fair, on paper, this strategy makes sense. Create more districts that lean Republican, and you’ve built a buffer against a bad swing. But with public opinion shifting the way it has, that plan may no longer hold up.
After all, to create this new “safe” seat, you have to pull Republican voters out of the other districts to fill it. Thus, thinning out the remaining ones. Which is great if the political environment stays stable, but polls clearly show that’s no longer the case. Which means those same thinned-out districts can suddenly become competitive and possibly problematic, at a time when Republicans can least afford it.
Political strategists have even coined an unflattering name for this when it backfires — a dummymander.
No Heavy Lifting Required
Which brings us back to where we started — the empty chair where a Democratic campaign strategist should be sitting. There really isn’t one, because they might not even need it.
The Iran war has done most of the work for the opposition by driving up costs, splitting the party, dragging Trump’s approval numbers down, and leaving the administration looking like a dysfunctional family at Thanksgiving.
Given that they currently control both chambers of Congress, this is not a small thing to gamble with. Lose a significant share of those seats, and Trump’s agenda effectively stalls for the rest of his term. And thinking two steps ahead, that fallout can extend long after November.
A weakened Trump-era GOP hands the next presidential race a very different landscape than the one Republicans were originally envisioning. And unless Trump fixes the mess he’s gotten himself and his party into, Democrats may not need a strategy so much as a front-row seat, as at this point, their campaign is basically running itself.
Curtis Scoon is the founder of ScoonTv.com Download the ScoonTv App to join our weekly livestream every Tuesday @ 8pm EST! Support true independent media. Become a VIP member www.scoontv.com/vip-signup/ and download the ScoonTv App from your App Store.
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