Battleground Brawl
Trump and Biden Wage War for Electoral Victory
By Jason Collins
We’re about six months away from the November elections, and things are heating up in the buildup to electoral judgment day. So far, we’ve seen heated debates within the GOP with candidates throwing around insults. We’ve seen the same candidates drop out until one is left, and right now, it’s clear that Biden and Trump are going head-to-head into the November election.
All lawmakers and political strategists agree that the battleground states will play a pivotal role in the outcome of the elections and will help determine whether Biden gets booted from the White House or Trump will leave a trail of orange self-tan and defeat. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in the battleground states.
Setting the Scene
The battleground states, also known as the swing states, are crucially important in American politics and are known to make or break a presidential candidate’s dream. This is because they could vote either Democratic or Republican. There is no guarantee. What makes a battleground state changes over time; for example, Florida and Ohio used to be battleground states but are now Republican red. Georgia used to be a solidly Republican state but is now a purple up-for-grabs battleground state.
Here are the current seven battleground states where the 2024 election will most likely be decided:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- North Carolina
- Nevada
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
The Battle for the Blue Wall
Democrats this year have their eyes fastened to the Blue Wall, which consists of three states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. This is where Biden previously won against Trump in the 2020 elections and is where he is hoping to win again. If he manages to win all three of these states, his chances of winning reelection are high. According to Senate Democratic Policy and Communications Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow, Biden’s campaign is similar to Trump’s, but he’s getting stuff done instead. If by done, Stanebow means a historic border crisis and a plummeting economy. He certainly is getting it done.
Stabenow, along with other Democratic leaders, have been trying to convince Americans for months now that the economy isn’t bad and inflation is only transitory. Stabenow told the Hill, “ We’re bringing jobs back. Basically, the Biden administration is doing everything that others — including Donald Trump — have talked about but were never really serious about doing.”
Stabenow also added, “President Biden is aiming right at the middle class: particularly, bringing jobs home. Rebuild America. You tackle costs, you take on the drug companies. Made in America,” But has this campaign put Biden in the lead for these three states? Yes and no. Depending on who you ask.
According to recent public polls, Biden’s support slowly climbed back up at the end of March, and this is now being called the “Biden bump.” Statistics taken from InteractivePolls on X show that Biden is taking the lead in Pennsylvania, which also happens to be his home state. A recent poll found that 44% of voters would choose Biden over Trump, who is projected to earn 41% of the votes. However, with only six months left until the elections, this is not a particularly large gap, and if Biden wants to keep his home state a blue state, he’s going to have to widen the margin.
Will winning these three states be enough for Biden? While it would push him in the right direction, there are still other battleground states that Biden has to do well in like North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.
Trump Leads in Key Battleground States
As Biden may be gaining ground in the blue wall states, which isn’t unusual, Trump has been steadily growing support in the battleground states, according to a different poll. The Wall Street Journal released the findings from its survey and found that Trump is leading in most of the battleground states. They found that Trump was the preferred choice in North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan with Biden being the top choice in Wisconsin. While traditionally Michigan has been a blue state, high-density Muslim populations in Dearborn are leaving Biden due to the war in Gaza putting his chances in the Great Lakes State seriously in doubt.
North Carolina saw a large gap between the two presidential candidates, with Trump leading at 42% and Biden at 34%. The poll also showed that more voters believe that Trump is better equipped to handle issues like inflation and rising costs, kickstarting the economy and the border crisis. In Georgia, Trump leads with 51% of the vote, and Biden trails behind with 48%. The reason why people are leaning towards Trump is a lack of faith in Biden’s policies and that Biden is not paying enough attention to issues like inflation.
What does electoral math say? According to U.S. News, if Biden loses Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona without adding another state he’d lose. If Biden loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia but if he keeps Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada he still loses. Democrats have been eyeing Georgia as a potential path to victory, which means the election could come down to Michigan and Georgia where Trump is currently leading.
What Are Their Chances?
There are still six months to go, and with the polls spitting out different numbers each week, now is when Biden and Trump will push their campaigns hard and focus on fundraising efforts. The more money your campaign has, the more you can reach voters in the battleground states. Both Biden and Trump raised an impressive sum of money at recent fundraising events. Biden’s star-studded gala at the Radio City Hall in New York raised $25 million, and Trump’s dinner event in Florida raised $50 million. With this amount of money raised, we’re sure to expect plenty of MAGA rallies leading up to the elections, assuming Trump can get out of courtrooms to hold them.
We’ll have to wait six months until the elections to see who sweeps up the swing states. Current betting odds for key swing states show that Biden may be able to gain back ground in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. This change in betting odds that saw Trump leading in Wisconsin last month could be a side effect of Trump’s ongoing legal woes. Could the upcoming decision on whether he has presidential immunity affect his campaign for good or worse, influencing whether Biden wins the battleground states? For Biden, Israel and the war in Gaza remain an electoral headache causing him to hemorrhage voters, particularly young voters whom he won by 29 points in 2020. That demographic is now evenly split between Biden and Trump. Currently, Trump is +120 and Biden is +200 to win the election. Those odds imply Trump has a 45.5% chance to win and Biden a 33.3% chance.
Both parties have begun spending tens of millions of dollars trying to convince voters that Trump will end democracy or Biden’s America is a disaster of epic proportions. As few as 100,000 people may decide this election, and they will certainly be found in these battleground states. The election is six months away; the fight for America has begun in earnest.