China’s Path to Domination in Eurasia
By Nikola Mikovic
In Central Asia – a strategically important region that has traditionally been in Russia’s geopolitical orbit – China is seeking to increase its influence. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana on July 3-4 clearly showed that Beijing sees itself not only as an informal leader of the group but also as the growing power in Eurasia.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
When Chinese President Xi Jinping landed at the airport in the Kazakh capital on July 2, it became clear that China’s delegation could count on a warm welcome in Kazakhstan. Chinese flags and announcements of Xi’s visit appeared on the streets of the Kazakh capital, while crowds of Chinese and Kazakhs came out to welcome the Chinese leader.
For other SCO leaders, the reception was more modest. They were met by the Kazakh Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov. Since Kazakhstan is a unitary state with a presidential system of government, it is Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakstan’s president, rather than Bektenov, who holds the real power in the Central Asian country. Thus, this symbolic gesture could indicate that the authorities in Astana see China as an informal group leader, as well as Kazakhstan’s most important trade partner.
As a member of the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union, Moscow has been Astana’s major economic partner over the years. But in 2023 the People’s Republic has eclipsed Russia as Kazakhstan’s main trade partner. According to the Kazakh official statistics, bilateral trade turnover between the former Soviet republic and China for the first 10 months of 2023 reached $21.7 billion, while the turnover between Kazakhstan and Russia was $18.9.
But the economy is unlikely the major reason why Xi received a warmer welcome than Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officially, the Chinese leader came on a state visit to Kazakhstan, which is why he arrived a day earlier than Putin and other heads of state and governments of the SCO countries such as India, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, as well as Belarus – the SCO’s newest member.
Belarus joined the China-dominated group, during the summit in Astana, where its President Alexander Lukashenko accused the West of “colonizing and mercilessly exploiting all other countries.” Lukashenko stressed.
The West, in such a pirate way, over the centuries created the foundation of its wealth, political, economic and military superiority.
Kazakhstan – a country aiming to preserve its well-known “multi-vector foreign policy”, and also strengthen relations with the European Union, especially in the field of energy – was unlikely happy about such an anti-Western rhetoric. Tokayev has repeatedly spoken out against what he described as “the bloc mentality”. Instead, he proposed the Initiative On World Unity for Just Peace, Harmony, and Development, which received unanimous support from SCO member states.
SCO leaders also adopted the organization’s Development Strategy until 2035, strategies for energy cooperation until 2030, as well as a series of other documents related mostly to security issues. Ever since its foundation in 2001, security has been the major aspect of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s very existence. Its goal was to fight against “three evil forces” – terrorism, separatism, and extremism. The concept was first defined in June 2001 during the first SCO summit.
Security and Economic Vision
In 2004, the multilateral group formed a Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), while at the summit in Astana security was yet again at the top of the agenda. However, if the organization aims to increase its influence in the global arena, it will likely have to become more active in the field of economics as well.
Let’s finally take certain steps to become less dependent on the US dollar,
Lukashenko stressed, calling on the creation of a mechanism for bilateral payments in national currencies.
Tokayev, on the other hand, repeatedly emphasized that, for more than 20 years, not a single major economic project has been implemented under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Despite that, Kazakhstan seems to benefit from participation in the SCO. The Central Asian nation’s trade with members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) reportedly grew by 6.5 percent by the end of last year. But that is the result of bilateral relations between the SCO countries, rather than the organization’s joint economic policy that still does not exist.
As Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilienko told Scoon TV, “advancing economic cooperation within the organization of very diverse nations is not an easy task.” He stressed,
SCO members still work more on a bilateral rather than on a multilateral basis.
Although the SCO remains the world’s largest regional multilateral group by geographic area and population, representing 40 percent of the global population and about 30 percent of its gross domestic product, it is still merely a regional security bloc. It remains highly uncertain if its major protagonists, Russia and China, will ever manage to transform the organization into a geopolitical counterweight to Western dominance in the global arena.
Chinese Leadership
Even though Russia, Belarus, and Iran, are seen as nations pursuing an “anti-Western” policy, SCO members such as China and Kazakhstan see the group as a “non-Western”, rather than an “anti-Western” organization. India, on the other hand, aims to preserve and even increase relations with the United States and its allies, which is why it is very difficult for the SCO to reach a consensus over some crucial geopolitical issues, which is necessary if the multilateral group aims to strengthen its role in the international arena.
While India sees its membership in the SCO as a means to increase engagements with the Eurasian region, its geopolitical rival China, on the other hand, seems to see the SCO as a tool to strengthen its influence in Central Asia. But the problem is that the strategically important region has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit, which means that China’s regional ambitions could eventually have an impact on its ties with the Kremlin, given that Beijing seeks a more direct way to engage with regional countries – without Russia’s involvement.
Besides Kazakhstan’s growing cooperation with China, Belarus – another Russian ally and a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – seems to also see Beijing as a de facto leader of the group. At the SCO summit in Astana, Lukashenko openly told Xi Jinping that he supports “all of his initiatives”, including the Chinese leader’s peace plan for Ukraine. Moreover, it is not a secret that Belarus’ leader’s son studies in Beijing, rather than in Moscow, which indicates that China managed to increase its soft power in the Eastern European country.
That, however, does not mean that Lukashenko will turn his back on the Kremlin any time soon, if at all. As he said at the summit in Astana, the multilateral group has “two powerful leaders” – Russia and China, which suggests that the Belarusian President is attempting to walk a path of balance between Moscow and Beijing. How long an organization can continue with two nations, co-leaders, influencing policy remains to be seen.
And since “no one can serve two masters”, in the foreseeable future all SCO members, including Russia, might have to recognize Beijing’s de facto leadership in the Eurasian organization.
